Tuesday, February 11, 2014

scarcity

SCARCITY

“Scarcity” by Christopher O Clugston was a book pointed out by our good Russian buddy Orlov. I was a bit hesitant to spend $18 on it but am glad I did ( on the other hand, “Going Dark” for the same price was a rip-off of touchy-feely “boo-humping hoo my dog died and I’m blubbering like a little bitch who just got traded to a big Skittles Eater buck for a carton of Kool’s” reprints from the web-site Nature Bats Last ). The book might be a touch hard to plough through for the average reader. I loved it, but it was so hard core doomer I’d have read through it joyfully if it had had mathematic equations. The book is 350 pages, but most of that is tables for all 89 of the non-renewable natural resources that are essential for industrial civilization to exist ( the books premise is that 2008 was the year GLOBALLY [ the US long ago surpassed this ] that all of these resources became economically unattractive ) so you only have 150 pages of analysis to get through. Here are two quotes that nicely sum up:

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“Permanent scarcity did not become epidemic IN 2008, it became epidemic BY 2008”.

“2008 was simply the transition point, the year during which the number of permanently scarce Natural Non-renewable Resources became sufficiently large to permanently depress future economic growth”.

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This is not a Peak Oil screed. He always lumps ALL resources together and doesn’t focus on oil ( but of course, as we all know, oil is THE resource that made it economically feasible to extract all the other resources when they became hard to extract and in minute quantities. Take away cheap oil and all other items are effected. He stresses repeatedly that we have plenty of resources left. What we don’t have are resources that are cheap enough or abundant enough ). Some of many are: bauxite, chromium, coal, copper, iron ore, natural gas, ammonia, phosphate rock, potash, sulphur and zinc.

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Now, I enjoyed this book just because it pointed out how across the board imminent shortages of affordable industrial commodities will doom our civilization ( think about how oil must be affordable and abundant to serve the needs of bankers and financiers to both grow the economy and pay back their interest they demand of loans, and apply that to ALL other industrial resources. For growth, ALL resources had to have been nearly free and mostly free flowing ). But what really rang my bell was the information on copper which will allow me to dance a little jig and mock all my unbeliever minions. Remember us talking about the shortage of brass being the primary driver behind the ammo costs and rimfire shortages? US copper production peaked in 1998. Global peak production ( remember, production must be affordable- just because an asteroid has pure ore doesn’t mean anyone can afford its million dollars per ounce ) in 2008. Not long after, the ammo shortages began and has not abated. You still won’t believe me of course, because you hate me for being right. But I still feel vindicated.

END

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19 comments:

  1. Gr8 post today.
    Totally confrazzled....The only scarsity item I have found is P.U.S.S.Y.
    of course due to my younger age. After 55-60 it wont matter. Everything else is business as usual.... Typical way of life. Unless or even if you're rich, is always going to be something you just cant get. i.e. the golden P.U.S.S.Y.


    Terribad.

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    1. @Terri.

      You're right P.U.S.S.Y. scarcity is been around for millennia. It comes in different flavors and some is expensive as hell. If you cant afford it just play the organ and let your imagination go. That is the alternative method available to the poor and ugly. That's a good thing that we are boys and have something to play with.
      For the fat and ugly ladies, there is always beer. Beer has been a service to them. After a few beers the world is totally different and the ugly benefits of the side effects.

      have a wonderful session.

      The magic hand.

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  2. A couple of years ago a local bank got robbed, not for the money inside - oh no. Thieves stole their outside HVAC unit for the copper wire. Danged thing weighed 2 tons.
    In the last few years more homes and business' have been hit by copper thieves than there have been old fashioned hold-ups and burglaries. Copper is king.

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    Replies
    1. And we chucked when we heard tales of African countries losing their telephone lines to copper theives. It was funny then, when our resources were dirt cheap. Not so funny closer to home.

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  3. Jim, sometimes I think the biggest Troll at your site is you.

    Why would you want to go and stir up that topic again? Especially when the evidence shows that you are wrong.

    Let's take a poll... Who thinks the ammo situation is better now than it was 6 months ago? Who thinks it's better now that it was a year ago?

    Go to aim surplus or J&G sales. Big ammo sellers. Aim has 5 different offerings for 223. J&G has 27 TWENTY SEVEN!!!!!

    Who remembers how it was 6 and 12 months ago?

    The Wal-Mart shelves were at 10% 6-12 months ago. Now they are at the 50% level.

    I agree the planet has FINITE resources.

    Your position, that a brass shortage is why 22lr is unavailable, is ABSOLUTE ignorance on your part. (And sour grapes to boot) Just because you weren't smart enough and quick enough to stock up on 22, then you authoritively state that's it a brass shortage. (resource depletion)

    Are you going to tell us that horse and buggy production peaked in 1915 as another example of resource depletion??????

    You Know Who
    A.K.A.
    The MEAN MINION

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    Replies
    1. Availability has increased somewhat, granted. Because the price doubled and tripled. The whole point is AFFORDABLE resources. I submit to you that $1 a round ammo is NOT affordable and makes the whole semi strategy obsolete for most of us. I don't have enough 22 only insofar as I never have enough of anything. As far as the horse and buggy, there would NOT be enough fertile soil available to feed them ( if they replaced cars ) AND all the people. I stand 100% behind my brass shortage story.

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    2. You need to come out of your cave.
      NOT $1 a round, 26 cents, at wallys
      We are not talking about the semi strategy!
      There would be if the corn crop wasn't going for ethanol.
      REALLY! Come out of your cave, and take a look at the situation.

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    3. The only thing I'm aware of that is that cheap is shotgun rounds. Which ain't brass.

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    4. Yes, they are.

      The S&B I got are.

      MICoyote

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  4. I'm glad you're aware of Peak Phosphate. I try not to be "doom-y" around my rellies but my geology student nephew is convinced that industrial agriculture will end soon...with the nations owning the last deposits staying on top longest. He also says - with that wonderful dry German sense of humor - that the Americans may develop an interest in protecting the Western Sahara, soon.

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    1. IF, and that is a big IF, we have the treasure needed for that overseas occupation. As soon as the right players refuse the Petrodollar, we are dead in the water and our overseas occupation ends in months.

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    2. When they (Saudi Arabia) refuse the Petro dollar, the U.S. will use its lead based currency :)

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    3. US oil imports- #1 Canada ( fake oil ). #2 Saudi Arabia. How to invade/occupy with the disruption of supply? Also, a few bombs in the right place and most Saudi oil is unprocessed.

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  5. Nitrogen is a renewable resource. Phosphorus and Potassium are major problems untalked about and unknown to most people. 40 to 50 years left of minable supply at current use levels. Then it's 15-20 bushel wheat per acre. Obviously billions will starve and prices will go up until equilibrium is again reached. The powers that be know all this, so what game is afoot? Will they allow a gradual decline or create a crisis to mask the real resource depletion? Some kind of false flag or orchestrated event?

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    Replies
    1. Mmmm. Not sure how much control ANY P.T.B. had on collapse throughout ages.

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    2. Spring a false flag nuclear attack on a major U.S. city (blame it on the Boogey man) as an excuse to declare martial law. Then turn the country into a concentration camp with travel restrictions, food cards, I.D. cards. Government controls everything and everyone. They then "control" the future. No more internet, only disinformation so nobody knows what is going on except the elite ruling class. I'd say that would mask pretty well resource depletion and allow the rulers to keep the goodies for themselves while the peons are slowly starved because of the "crisis". Somewhat akin to Hunger Games.

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    3. Plauable, to be sure. EXCEPT! They are so incompetant I image everywhere there is starvation and death by exposure and hence revolt and The Center Cannot Hold.

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