Wednesday, September 11, 2013

3pc2v2no25

3PC2v2no25

THREE PHASES CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE

Last Phase-Post Oil

Here is the easiest-post oil. Easy because it is exactly how things have always been since the last Giant Sloth was hunted down by a hairless ape wearing fur and the climate change ( Gore Warming Version One-just prior to Al inventing the Internet ) making a mess of hundreds of thousands or millions of years of evolution and forcing man into the unnatural and crappy Agricultural Revolution ( man might have only lived to forty, but he was eating barbeque several times a week and working about 3 hours a day. Come farming, all he got was gruel and a king who could smite him at whim, working dawn to dusk ). All the asparagus eaters should be creaming their jeans because unless you live out in The Wastes herding, you are stuck as a serf scratching the soil with a wooden stick and hoping His Most Exalted Poo-Ba King Of All He Surveys has had a good day and won’t take all your food this time, leaving you to starve ( or, the wolves don’t eat your newborn [can’t have a weapon to defend yourself] or the bandits don’t skin you alive as they shun your fat ugly wife [how the bitch stay fat on a gruel diet is a bit mysterious] or The Plague doesn’t melt off your junk ). Yep, soon enough it is back to a crappy life of servitude and famine. Nothing much more to talk about here. But a few things must be remembered in the grand scheme of things. You must beware and plan of technology devolution, slavery is assured to return, all wealth will be in land and metal is going to be once again a scarce resource even amongst its present abundance.

*

You must wrap your head around the absolute scarcity of current petroleum products. ALL the easy shallow low pollutant oil is gone. There will be no more Pennsylvania wells dug with water pipe. No more surface oil seeping up on its own accord. ALL the high energy coal is gone, replaced by crappy yielding sources far below ground. We are already at the crap stages of industrial energy. Come collapse, no energy is going to be extracted by primitive technology. We are already scooping mountains flat or digging new canyons and using huge machines, bigger than you ever imaged as you guided Bob The Builders Official Bulldozer across the living room trailed by the reeking discharge on your overripe diaper. Not high tech machines per se, just really big and powerless without oil themselves. Our oil alternate mining machines need oil to run. All our energy and all our ore are extracted by giant machines unable to be duplicated on a smaller lower tech lower energy scale. They are gone. No more oil, no more systems built on oil. And no more cheap chemicals based on oil. Which means no more modern anything. Transportation, weapons, farming. Even old tractors with bio-diesel need petroleum lubricants and eventually a critical pare part won’t exist or can’t be fabricated. Even black powder rifles need good steel barrels. And scavenging will only last so long, complicated by the decades long recent trend towards planned sub-quality materials. You can keep the modern era alive for some time, but certainly not forever.

*

Slavery is nobodies idea of fun, but I can guaranty you anything I own ( perhaps even the wife, yes? Yes? Anyone? ) that it will return post-oil. Don’t listen to those chicken molesting Yankee apologists that the Civil War was over slavery. The war was about States being subjugated by the Federal government. And don’t pay any attention to those pious asswhore Lime suckers that felt so badly that their little brown brothers in their former colony were enslaved. The Brits only outlawed slavery to protect the machines ( slaves and delicate expensive industrial machines don’t mix well ). They certainly were in no hurry to outlaw having serfs for ones very own castle, what? And those bastards loved to mow down the Irish and Indians ( dots, not feathers ) during famines rather than risk losing one farthings worth of profits ( of course, I don’t hate all Brits, just the power elite through the ages. Just as I don’t hate ALL Yankees but just most since they mostly went along with colonizing the South and then making a living disguising it ). The ONLY reason slavery was abolished was because coal and then oil became a much, much cheaper form of free energy. Which is the only reason slavery exists. Read Carefully: FREE, repeat as many times as it takes for you to comprende, FREE energy. It isn’t about racism. That is the justification, not the reason. This stuff is so simple even I can understand it.

*

Wealth will go back to being tied to the land. Period. Without petroleum, food is no longer almost free. It becomes very dear indeed. And hence wealth, and military power, reside in its surplus. Again, simple stuff. We got distracted for a time. When the King Of Kenya can print up hundreds of trillions of dollars ( the actual idiot that ran the African country, not the immigrant that is in the White House ) it simply astonishes me that folks place so much faith and expend so much energy lusting after paper money. And you know our system is pretty screwed up when a sixteen year long education ( accomplished with about five years of wages worth of college debt ) teaches people so little they think getting into another ten years worth of wages in debt to “own” ( you never own your house. The bank does, then the property tax collecting agency does ) their very own stick built sheetrock stucco covered shell designed to hold in central heat and air, built in a desert with no place to even garden, is a really good idea. Education-less peasants built their own house with labor and free local materials ( of course, to be fair, most places now won’t allow you to do so. Anywhere there is a job, staying out of the bankers clutches is literally illegal ). My point is, they think this is normal. And any thinking person should see the flaws here. People put all their faith in a joke of a house and a joke of a currency. Wealth, real wealth, is feeding yourself ( and in a post-collapse world, more importantly, feeding your lord also ). It isn’t resale value of a dwelling only kept habitable by a dwindling resource, nor is it Monopoly money forced into circulation by force. Ten thousand years ago to recently, wealth was farmland and water and will be again real soon.

*

Metal is everywhere. But why do you assume there will be high current AC electricity to use power tools to reshape it, or the energy needed to re-smelt it and reuse it for more important tasks? A blacksmith can get you horseshoes and hand tools. He’s not so great at specialty steels, fabricated parts, extreme tolerances. We might never run out of metal, but it is doubtful we will keep any of our machines running or be able to duplicate them. Anything above cold filing might even be problematic if an area sees energy shortages. The Ancients weren’t ignorant savages. They merely lacked the needed energy sources to advance. Unlike ourselves, who having had a burst of high energy fuel, wasted it with amazing stupidity and then allowed that energy to do so much of our work we’ve regressed mentally almost completely across the board. The future isn’t going to be exactly like the past, but enough so that you shouldn’t delude yourself that high tech toys will stick around. Be ready to devolve. And not in a hippie commune tree hugging windmill powering the boom box playing a CD of bongos serenading unicorns kind of way but a nastier serfs starving amid Thirty Year Wars while dying of Plague kind of way. Cause oil ain’t going to feed or overfeed you, primer ignited Colts aren’t going to make you all equal, and the new normal is the old normal.

END



21 comments:

  1. Jim's on fire! Great article! Ordered through your amazon link this morning, and do so whenever possible (Forget occasionally?)

    "A blacksmith can get you horseshoes and hand tools. He’s not so great at specialty steels, fabricated parts, extreme tolerances."

    And hopefully forge a primitive, and relatively accurate steel barrel? But as I've mentioned many a time before, learn primitive archery skills, and stock up on Dacron (The hardest part to make in primitive archery is a decent string) spools or paracord while you can.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The guy that wrote "living off-off grid" has a post-apoc novel out which has a mixed bag of weapons used in the near future. Bows and firearms they have limited ammo for. However, I still think the crossbow will reign supreme. We have plenty of steel for them, the training time is almost zero compared to bows, and with a non-combative member teamed up with the crossbowman as a shield bearer the reload factor isn't terrible. Of course, for yourself a bow is fine. I'm speaking from a system wide perspective. Thank you for ordering as Amazon commission is 90% or so of my pay. I hope you got the Berky filters. $30 each is a sweet deal.

      Delete
    2. Yes you are correct in that crossbows are a quick study tool. Yet they have severe limitations such as rate of fire for one. You speak of time...this is a commodity which all will have plenty of extra once all the distractions are gone.
      As I've stated before, I could make you a decent archer within a day. Then you have plenty of time for practice.
      Crossbows require a much stronger arrow than a traditional bow, also strings are harder to make. The simple recurve will rule. A Compound will be King.

      Delete
    3. I have no doubt you could instruct an archer in a day. Now, let me ask you this. Is that a teachable skill only in person, or is it book teachable? Hell, sell it to Paladin Press, the cheese dick jew mother humpers. I'd WAYYYY overpay for that book if you churned it out, if you can shortcut the training time to one day ( plus a lifetime of practice ). Okay, obviously archery isn't kung-fu or auto mechanics. You could teach yourself. I'm interested in genuine shortcuts to the process. Like all country boys I had a bow. I just couldn't hit anything smaller than a haybale at short range.

      Delete
    4. All good points. Personally, I plan on concentrating more on home made bows of the simple variety, such as a basic longbow as this one:

      http://www.poorfolkbows.com/oak.htm

      Or one of the simple wooden or PVC bows by Nicholas Tomihama:

      http://www.amazon.com/The-Backyard-Bowyer-Beginners-Building/dp/0983248109

      The recurve bow is of a very efficient design, and provides a better cast than that of a longbow, however it is also more complicated to make, and requires jigs, and a greater skill set than I have, But of course, if you are a capable individual, by all means, go for it.

      I have an ExCalibur crossbow. I purchased it with durability and simplicity in mind, as I wanted a minimun of parts that could fail (Non-compound crossbow). I will use it to keep a low profile when sniping waterfowl on ponds. Nicholas Tomihama made a dandy PVC crossbow Jim:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylZSX2iEiDo

      I like crossbows, but plan on concentrating mostly on primitive wooden bows, as these will be the easiest to produce post collapse.

      Delete
    5. I have that old school wilderness survival book from, what?, the 60's. Can't recall the name but very popular. Thats what I used for my first bow. But I've earmarked the one you linked-thanks. Might as well see whats up with that one.

      Delete
    6. Here's something else that you and the other readers might want to take a closer look at Jim.

      http://www.amazon.com/Spectre-Compact-Take-down-Survival-Arrow/dp/B003O98OJI

      Delete
    7. Okay, everyone seemed impressed with it, good reviews. But my first question when looking at it was, ummmm, why do you need a take down bow? The arrows and bag are just as long as the assembled bow. What am I missing here?

      Delete
    8. Hmmm? Good question Jim? I'll try and get back to you on this one. I didn't right off see anything listing the dimensions? I figured if nothing else, it's a good strong bow at a price more reasonable than that of most non-take down bows. Even 3 Rivers Archery wanted $100.00 for a basic wooden English longbow. This one is fibreglass and will be more durable.

      I think that you should take a look at the actual manufacturers website Jim. They have a model that includes take down arrows in the kit:

      http://xpectre.com/index.php?option=com_virtuemart&view=productdetails&virtuemart_product_id=5&virtuemart_category_id=1

      Here is the main page; they have some cool survival gear.

      http://xpectre.com/

      BTW, the Compact Take-Down “Spectre II” as it's listed at the manufacturers site, comes in 35, 45, and 55lb draw weights

      http://xpectre.com/index.php?option=com_virtuemart&view=productdetails&virtuemart_product_id=1&virtuemart_category_id=1

      Delete
    9. Remember the comment showing us the site on do-it-yourself bow using a Home Depot $10 stick of oak or whatever it was ( cherry? ). I think thats a much better idea, but then I also don't have time. But, stock the sticks and accessories and instructions.

      Delete
  2. Lord Bison of the Great Basin and King of Coiffure;

    So to paraphrase your article; Everything old is new again! I really enjoyed your very simple analysis of why slavery was actually outlawed. I've thought that way for years since my personal discovery of the finite nature of petroleum and other hydrocarbons. Yes of course slavery is going to make a HUGE comeback, in fact we are seeing the beginnings of the peculiar institution now, with the way the personal bankruptcy laws in North America have become skewered towards the banker masters and assorted creditors, forcing the so-called deadbeat debtor to work for years (in some cases decades in fact) to work off the debt accrued in bankruptcy.

    I'm sure its only a matter of time, when the neocon fascists are re-implemented en masse (November 2014, due to the current idiot's complete perceived mismanagement of the so-called 'free-market' economy) they will of course respond to their masters call to implement the re-activation of the dreaded debtors prisons, forcing all who have missed a payment on anything to slave away at the hands of dubious private corrections officials.

    Either way we as the serfs of the land are royally screwed, since none of us will be able to afford the services of an attorney to represent us at the kangaroo debtors court. Like you elegantly wrote you won't be able to prevent the wolves from snatching your baby, because you won't be allowed by the banker/creditor masters to possess a weapon capable of doing so, hence its off to the debtors prison for the lot of us. Keep keeping it real James!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It isn't because "misery loves company" that I love talking about our worse than expected future. It's just so I can be the movements gadfly. That part I love. You can tell I'm doing what I love, right? Yep, if we indeed sidestep a collapse it will be with serfdom as you describe. Dysfunctional future is the BEST we can hope for.

      Delete
    2. They'll have to find my lame ass !!!!

      Delete
    3. Spud, you're one in a million. Few would pick Swamp Rat over serf.

      Delete
  3. I fear you might be right. There's something going on under that beautiful head of hair.

    That doesn't stop me from looking for loopholes. A small isolated community with access to good resources might stand a chance. Picture a remote fishing village where they still know how to turn timbers into boats. They could be pretty free and successful -until some thug discovers how "rich" they are and invades. Either that or their population grows enough that they turn to trade, Viking raids, or a bit of both. Ah heck . . . sooner or latter everything breaks down.

    Well, nothing's perfect, but there could be places and ways of life that suck less.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. An alien virus that wipes out humanity in days ( The Breakers series as the newest incarnation ) seems like a swell idea, doesn't it? I think the main way to lose yourself is to trek overland and find a spot away from any road. That MIGHT work. Isn't this what we are all trying to do, find a loophole? But ultimately, yeh, be satisfied with what sucks less.

      Delete
    2. Six Bears, I love your term :Finding ways of Life tha Suck Less". Don't know who said it first But that is on the level of His Hairness. LOL

      We are trying to come together as a community on the hill where I stay. From the road it doesnt look like much but we have alot of growing assets.

      Water, game (while it lasts) small live stock and some food production going. Heavy equipment, horses, Skill sets, and more. Too bad its so dang hot here but we wont freeze either.

      Jim, I love the bow idea. I have a recurve and two compounds. Got the old one for free. Still shoots, and a moderned accessorized one with arrows and all for $75 I think on Craigslist. Buy a couple now while you can. Mine are all lefty for obvious reasons but may grab a couple right handed ones. Still want to stock up on strings and arrows.

      Consider a lighter bow, 20# to 30# for teaching and smaller folks. Ive killed small game with small bows. Not everyone can use a 75# bow.

      Great post Jim

      Delete
  4. Rifle barrels are a specialist's skill, not something that any blacksmith can turn out, but it doesn't take oil or modern technology. They were being made over 300 years ago, from iron and charcoal. I don't see us falling so far we forget how to make that - tools of destruction are the last to be lost and the first to be made.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My concern is this: all the easily extracted ore is gone, only the big scoops and giant transports and lots of energy now extract what is left. Minute quantities in large areas. So, perhaps a find of a surface nugget here and there but mostly you have above ground already smelted metal. That is the futures scavenger source material. Can you get the needed quality steel from that with charcoal?

      Delete
  5. The second comment from the top. Should have been "surviving off off-grid" not "living". By M. Bunker if my struggling memory is working.

    ReplyDelete
  6. An adder to your comment on ac power availability.

    Don't thing living next to a solar farm, or wind farm will do it either. They are not stand alone systems and shutdown (anti-islanding) when the utility ac system they tie into goes down. Unless you are an amazing whizz at hacking inverter programing, all you can do is get dc power. Not useless, but not many ready built applications for it now.

    ReplyDelete