Thursday, August 1, 2013

3pc2v2no20

3PC2v2no20

THREE PHASES CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE

Prepping For Economic Collapse-Living Near Masses

The first problem you are faced with during the economic collapse was debt. Both having to pay it off because other than a literal overnight collapse the banks will always be around just long enough to repo your processions, and the necessity of living like a rabid savage as the only solution for doing so. Hey, I’ve been living off grid for years, far longer living like an illegal alien, and I’ll be the first to tell you even though it is a liberating and secure way to live, trading luxury for that will always be difficult. Ain’t no free lunch. It is hard enough to consign ourselves to such a life, far harder to drag the family down behind us ( of course, to be clear, we are talking about a life of genteel poverty, not a life-threatening Third World early death by starvation and disease kind of living ). I’m not minimizing the price, I’m just telling you that as one who was forced to downgrade, I can attest to both its appeal and its limitations. Anyway, you are not done dealing with a huge crap sandwich in your new life ( hold the bread ). You must deal with living near teeming masses that wish you harm ( that’s problem two. Problem three, weaning yourself off petroleum-and the car was just the first baby step, is the next chapter ).

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I absolutely detest the Bug Out concept ( although my next book will be on making the best out of that bad strategy ). Cranial Anal Reversal Syndrome ( CARS, a widespread incurable malady ) folks think they can have their cake and eat it too by living in the big city for superior pay and then plan on bugging out to their retreat to avoid all the problems of big city life ( such as tens of thousands of ghetto dwellers turning on you in a hissey fit when their Food Stamp cards not only become invalid, but then they can’t even loot because the shelves are empty anyway ). I won’t say too much on all this, saving it for another time. But bugging out presupposes several things. You are both smart enough and brave enough to identify when you must leave and have the conviction to do so. The TSA, the FedGov’s newest jackbooted thug team which have feelings of inadequacy compared to real cops ( other Fedgov agencies have similar problems such as IRS SWAT teams and AFT Stormtroopers ) are very dangerous because of this. In order to prove how tough and vicious they are, they overcompensate by trampling on your Constitutional rights as a matter of course. Just like a short feeble female cop who stomps kittens to prove how macho she is, TSA bitches will shove a billyclub up your ass and kill you, just to get FedGov LEO Street Cred. You DO NOT want to be at the mercy of our new Transportation Police ( TP’s ) because of this. Bugging out means you might be stopped by these goons. Then, it is Tent City/Concentration Camp time and end story for you and your family.

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Bugging Out is stupid. But, don’t hurt your own back patting it just yet, if you are already able to pre-positioned. You can’t just live out in the boonies. It isn’t that simple. You can, if you don’t need to earn a paycheck. Which is a need most of us can’t avoid. So, you compromise and do one of two things. You live in the sticks but are compelled to drive long distances. Not only does this retain one of lives most expensive needs ( although, still better than staying in the city ), it leaves you at the mercy of petroleum imports ( again, it can work. If you are debt free and grow all your own food, this allows you to stay there as needed. The problem is, most of us can’t afford a debt free piece of land suitable for growing our own food ). Or, two, you can live closer to a small to mid size city. You are free of your petroleum masters, but you are much closer to the teeming masses of malcontents. I hope this far into the book you now realize, this isn’t about a perfect solution but at best about realizing all your problems and trying to minimize them ( but they are NOT solvable to the average Prepper ).

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Of the two, I’ve chosen the lesser evil of living near too many people. I’m a bit old for being a Mountain Man, scraping the last of the jar of pickled beans a month before the crop is due in, wondering how I’m going to eat thirty miles from the nearest grocery store. If I had started much earlier I think I could have made a good Swiss Family Robinson Farmer Edition. But as it stands, in a devolving world, it is all about minimizing The Crap Sandwich as best you can. Best case scenario, my town experiences its own economic meltdown, most people leave and my post-collapse position is much improved. Worse case, I’m quickly overwhelmed by the Town Council Militia Force, my food stolen and my bullet ridden corpse left for the coyotes. A much better set of choices than being beholden to the bank for thirty years for my homestead, or living in the city ( I live five miles from town. Not terrible, but not too great either. But better than the Huge Urban Metroplex and/or suburbs ). The problem is, no one can live in a truly small town. Not without petroleum inputs. The Big Box stores killed all small town Mom & Pops. You can’t avoid this new arrangement ( one that wasn’t an issue in the 70’s survivalist world ). You can only pick one or another of the lesser evils.

END

8 comments:

  1. As a loyal sub-minion I have to say: Yep!

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    1. As a sub-minion and new to the ranks, you can be forgiven. But customarily an agreement with me is also accompanied by praise for my hair.

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  2. James,
    As I've mentioned before, all you can do is improve your odds. If you assume this is a 90% die off scenario, which would take the US population down to like 30 million, pretty much by definition the average survival rate is 10%. How can you do better than that average is the central question of the survivalist/prepper/whatever you'd like to call yourself. If you do live in an urban deathtrap, a rehearsed bug-out strategy to a safer location might move your odds up from 5% to perhaps as much as 25%, assuming that the hairs on the back of your neck are good ones and you're willing to accept a reasonable risk of a false alarm triggering your escape strategy. A heavily armed and heavily food stockpiled strategy out in the middle of nowhere probably has a much better set of odds. But in something as hardcore as a 90% catabolic collapse, I rather doubt anyone without serious connections and resources will get their odds much above 50%.

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    1. Here's one of my problems w/bug out. How do you respond at the last minute, no warning, no vacation or sick days? Your job is on the line. When do you accept the risk of losing it? You stayed in city for the job, human nature says you will waffle and short change danger to keep the job since it is that important to you. I do hear you on the Increase Odds thing. I think it is spot on.

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  3. James,
    Bugging out isn't my intended strategy, but to have a decent---i.e. at least 50-50---shot at successfully executing it, you probably need to be in the top 10% or so of people in terms of speed of reacting to the beginnings of a crisis. You don't have to outrun everyone, just probably 90% of everyone. If you're someplace really really bad, like, say, NYC, you probably need even more than the top 10% since way less than 10% is sufficient there to totally choke the transportation networks on your way out.
    But if that's part of your risk mitigation strategy, you pretty well need to keep some vacation/sick days in the bank for 'existential dread'. You'd also be advised to set some bright line rules on when you will bug out to keep your rationalization hamster in line.

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    1. My bone of contention is, will you adhere to your own tripwire events? Or follow human nature and fudge? If you were 100% convenced the collapse would happen, you would avoid the big city regardless of percieved benefits. Hence, a shred of doubt is already there and can become a deadly whisper in your ear to stay.

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    2. James,
      Most people don't set tripwire events with big bright lines. That's a mistake, such bright line rules are the only hope most of us have against our rationalizing selves. Even with such rules, there are plenty of 'Lot's Wives' who will start too soon or get lost on the way.
      Also, most people, even fairly hardcore preppers/survivalists/etc tend to have a number of scenarios in mind for the future with various probability estimates. How long the center can continue to hold is an open question. How obvious it'll be when the wheels fall off is another. There are also, ahem...certain Darker strategies that one might employ in a TSHTF scenario, which are greatly enhanced in their effectiveness if you're in certain urban areas of political and economic importance.

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    3. I think the sheer number of variables makes those lines much harder to draw, also. If you don't take them into account, updated constantly, you fall asleep and see nothing ( like those folks still living in NYC after a second bomb ). But, if you continue inputing/calculating you lose your mind/go insane. No wonder urban living is so stressful.

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