Tuesday, July 16, 2013

riding oil down


RIDING OIL DOWN

I was following the links from Rawles this morning and read the article on “things American’s don’t know” and the one on how all our physical gold is now in China and other places.  I was a bit chagrinned to read the part on the rest of the world not giving two Gott Damns about us as long as we weren’t shooting at them or propping up a meat puppet that was shooting them by proxy.  It makes sense, and highlights our own hubris.  And makes a lie of my theory that if you moved overseas you would most likely have a target painted on your forehead since your gringo imperialist ass is not very popular.  Of course, true or not, you still don’t want to move there if you depend at all on money from Das Homeland.  I imagine, all being said and done, as long as you assimilate culturally you will be fine ( I personally am still going with the target theory, but just to stay on the side of extra paranoia ).  But what really got to me with the article was our relative unimportance elsewhere.  If this is true, and we have no impact on folks thinking, it would seem that we aren’t in charge, nor are we influencing events as we think we are.  It follows that all the slight hints as to our decline globally are thus far more advanced than thought.

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For many moons, our influence and impact globally has been on the wane.  I think we can agree on that.  Militarily, since Vietnam.  Economically, since we started stripping our manufacturing capacity and went off the gold standard ( and, ultimately, once we were no longer the globes number one oil producer ).  But that is old hat.  The newest problems are from our Petro-dollar influence being in trouble.  Of course, no one wants to believe this because we all know it would spell game over.  So we invent lies about energy independence from frac oil ( a 20% increase in domestic production, but still only 5% of our total daily use ).  We keep blaming The Seven Sisters for rigging oil prices ( there are less than seven now, of course, but little matter ).  But most of the oil nowadays- you know, the stuff that is all our imports except Canadian tar- is controlled by national governments like Saudi Arabia and Russia.  The private oil companies have very little influence anymore relative to the 70’s oil embargo.  And, as bad as the Federal Reserve Bank is, our owner as a nation ( not the Chinese.  Damn, people, we can easily tell any and all creditors to piss off and die.  China will not be running our country ), they are only as strong as the assets they control.  Yes, they control Europe to a degree.  Because Europe aligned with them ( or, depending on who really controls the Fed, we jumped into bed with them ).  But go the Petro-dollar, so goes our economy and the Fed.

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 And it looks like we are losing control of the oil.  Not just because of all those nationally controlled oil companies.  But because our one and only controlled country, Saudi Arabia, has been in oil production decline for years.  They used to pump enough, or not pump enough as the case was, everyone else had to go along.  The Saudi’s said, only take Fed Notes for oil, everyone else complied.  We didn’t control world oil production, we just controlled the biggest company.  But for years now, more and more countries have been entering into barter agreements with each other.  They simply bypassed the petrol-dollar.  And now China is accumulating more and more physical gold as our banks, those comprising the Fed, just play with paper equivalents.  For a time, this made them mega-bucks ( and obviously still is, as witnessed by the recent manufactured Big Dump in its price on our rigged markets ).  But one day, as Saudi oil keeps falling along with their influence on the pricing mechanism, the petro-dollar will no longer be a viable note of exchange and China will be ready to step in with real gold backed money.  Not to be the world’s next imperial power.  Simply to be the one at the head of the line in any trade agreements.  The US offers a double edged sword to the Saudi’s.  Insist on dollar trade for oil, and we will protect you.  Mess with us and we will topple your régime. But soon the Saudi’s will not be the influence they once were, because of too many decades of overproduction ( gee, let’s see.  My options are to damage future yield, or to be overthrown in a coup.  What shall I do? ).

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Look at the map.  China only has a small slice of pie to protect to ensure oil delivery.  Naval control of trade routes, from the middle east and African production, is easily defended in comparison to American routes.  In a world of decline, getting more with less is the winning strategy.  And then look at Chinese food production in Africa.  Is it really about the food?  Or is it about pre-positioning military assets ahead of time, in a non-threatening manner?  They have boots on the ground to both feed themselves and assume control of the energy supply.  Remember, China is manufacturing for the world on less oil than Americans need to drive from the suburbs to work.  They know how to conserve.  They can allow North America and Europe to dry up economically and wither, needing far less energy or military assets to ensure their own survival and prosperity.  We might think we have the biggest and badest military around, but it sure as crap is less than we need in relation to all our obligations we’ve made to keep us top dog.  The fact that the world pays us no mind, despite our number one military and supposed number one economy ( my guess, just fudged numbers to make the masses patriotic and without panic ), tells me we wield far less control than we assume. And soon that will be obvious to you as you live in a cardboard box under a bridge.

END

16 comments:

  1. How many countries are we maintaing bases in? 134? Seems we could stand down in Japan and Germany at the very least. I think we have rebuilt them enough. I know isolationism is what the scholars say caused the world wars but in reality all we did was conserve resources until we had enough to do the job. Rebuild the great white fleet to remind the world we are here and let the rest of the world go to hell in the hand basket of their choice.

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    1. We need to secure the world to secure the oil ( and hence our food ). China needs to secure only half of that, and they can do so using far less oil to do it than we can/do. That is her inherint advantage. And all she has to do is stand out of our way.

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    2. I think China is over extended on it's credits and it is just a matter of time before their economy hits the oscillation. Oil or not, we are in for some fun times.

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    3. Remember, China owns its own bank. The Fed Bank owns the US. An economic contraction is going to effect each differantly because of this.

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  2. I was just saying today over at Russell's blog that if I was China I would be doing exactly what they are doing and laughing as I watched the US tear itself apart. The last thing I would do is make a move that would unify or force the US into making some hard choices. They might make the right ones for a change!!!!

    That being said Asian Males are not any more liked than White Males across the globe and they are by far less forgiving as an overseer. In the end China is going to have it's own problems trying to control their empire and will have far less going for it domestically as well. Their long term maintenance costs are going to be staggering.

    Long term the one to watch is going to be Russia I think.

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    1. Oh, agreed. China is just on the decline in a smarter way. Russia, as long as she stays internal, has a lot going for her. A lot of resources and half the population.

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  3. Nightsoil here

    c'mon. stay in the good old usa folks. stick with the shit hole that you know. the usa still has some nice places. the rest of the world is over populated anyways. i'll take my chances in the woods come crunch time.

    oh yeah, almost forgot, stock up on paracord.

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    1. i AGREE STAYING WITH THE DEVIL YOU KNOW. hOWEVER, THE us IS #3 POPULATION, BEHIND cHINA AND ( sorry, the cap lock was on )India, so it is we who are overpopulated.

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  4. The Chinks know that if the U.S. fails, so will they. Their entire economy is based on idiots in the U.S. buying their crap products that last only a year or two.

    They have had money in the U.S. election process since 1992. They know that as long as 'friends' get elected, they will keep the charade going. A completely clueless one like Barack is their Godsend. They are laughing at the idea of 'people rule' when they can simply 'buy' the outcome they want.

    The U.S. and it's idea of democracy will be the biggest laughingstock in all of history. Doubt that at your own peril.

    Russia wins-the-day in the end. 'Til Jesus comes back, that is. Even Lord Bison must bow on that day.

    Hit Jim's Donate button all you cheapskates. I'm giving $10. You can afford more. Do it.

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    1. I agree on your Donate Button part. But not on your dependency part. China has cornered manufacturing for the entire globe on many products. 90% of absorbic acid. 90% on socks and underwear. Near 100% on shoes. I'm sure there are many, many more. The US can fall off the Earth and China can still sell to others. Also, they make quality. Not all is crap, just what they make for Wal-Mart and those vial twats Payless Shoes.

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    2. True Dat, I splurged and bought some $55 LL Bean moccasins
      a few years ago. Made in china and still wearing strong as I lurk at Walmart, checking out the females...

      Gil

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    3. LL Bean makes their crap in China? Damn. Kinda sad. As for WM females, the hottie Barbie Plastic Princesses are showing up there more now as the middle class is squeezed.

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  5. I really hate it when I have to give you a compliment but here goes: today's post was dead on. Outstanding job of taking a complicated situation and presenting it in a simplified fashion for us dummies. You are the most depressing person I have ever encountered but you do always tell it like it is and in a world full of bovine excrement you read like a breath of fresh air. Don't hold your breath waiting for your next compliment. This took a lot out of me. the rat

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    1. Since we see things so differantly, believe you me I understand what a compliment that was. Okay, that takes care of 2013. I'll expect one more next year. Be cool, brother.

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  6. I could not believe my eyes when I saw the news early this morning that Big Oil sez "$3 dollar a gallon gasoline will never come back", claiming global demand is outstripping the supply, even with fracking going on. BS - its profit man, but pricing too high will come back to haunt them.

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    1. I disagree. The profit, my fine feathered minion, is all the governments. THEY, not Big Oil, not the pumper or shipper or refiner or retailer, make the most profit per gallon sold. One well costs millions of dollars, and you think $90 a barrel is ripping you off? Do you know how much wood you need to equal the energy in oil? Sorry, I digressed. Government, being the benificiary, would encourage consumption, yes? Are they? Come on! Big Oil Evilness is a paradigm decades out of date.

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