ON THE ROAD TO THE ROAD?
I hope yesterday we established beyond a reasonable doubt that yes Virginia, we are all going to die a horrible elongated death because all of the resources able to be extracted by lower technology have been used up and as soon as the oil supply drops enough than those resources able to be extracted by petroleum such as steel and food and coal and liquid fuel will also be unattainable. So today’s question, conveniently provided by a loyal minion, is whether or not this is going to be an extinction level event. Well, okay, we were actually just talking about the novel The Road, but it got me to thinking. Can we achieve The Roads level of die-off without low probability events taking place? The wonderful thing about scary ideas such as mass solar flares, global nuclear war, Gore Warming, asteroid impacts and the like is that we can oh so easily dismiss them with little effort. All it takes is a kernel of doubt, the smallest mathematical probability of the event not happening and we immediately cease to worry. We go back to planning for small, manageable, survivable events such as hurricanes. We buy a case of MRE’s and an AR-15 and ignore all likely perils, concentrating on paying the mortgage and getting laid twice a month whether the trophy wife believes you deserve it or not. I agree that this is a lot easier on the brain, but unfortunately for you, the smarter ones survive by not only being prepared but getting the heck out of the way prior.
So, can we see widespread die-off from easy to forecast, near 100% certainty events? Peak Oil is nothing more than resource depletion. Unless you buy into fantasies such as 500 year frack oil like The Universes Biggest Wanker Glen Beck ( his profit center is selling “democrats are cause of all evil”, which is bad enough. His belief in centuries of frack oil is simply embarrassing and inexcusable ), you know it is game over with only the timing being the issue. Saudi Arabia has already peaked in production, as has Russia. Remember, the Saudi’s wouldn’t admit it when they first peaked, so don’t expect them to admit actual decline until after the fact. It could already be happening. And Peak Oil has already put us on the path downward to economic collapse. Without growth in the supply of oil, interest isn’t paid. Only quantitative easing and derivatives growth has kept us from total collapse, and that is running out of steam. So, can running out of oil be as bad as I’ve predicted ( but obviously my time factor was way off )? We know it is going to be bad, but will it get really bad without the really bad things happening? Without a nuclear war, without global warming, without other improbable events, how bad will “mere” oil decline and economic collapse be?
When an asteroid impacts, humans start starving and looting immediately. When the nukes start flying, most of us die immediately. If the globe suddenly sees a lurch in weather, a lot of us could die immediately. Sudden, improbable events not only have little chance of occurring, gladdening our pattering little hearts, they are also easy on the human race. Those events leave more resources to the survivors. High probability events, those we are already experiencing but are denied vigorously, are what is going to trip us and violate us without lubrication for the simple fact that they take place on a long enough time scale that ALL resources are destroyed or used up, leaving nothing for the survivors ( I would actually concede that Gore Warming, if it is man made- I said IF, would be a long term event such as the economy and the oil. If it is natural, such as from solar activity, it could be a sudden disaster ). Worse case scenario, is this going to be an extinction event? I’m going with yes, this is quite possible. This is the first time in human history that the entire globe is being environmentally degraded as a result of current survival coping mechanisms. It has nothing to do with Gore Warming ( if it is man made, there isn’t a damn thing we can do. The extractors will not stop out of altruism ). It doesn’t have much to do with The Petroleum Age ( other than that brought us to the point we are at ). It is simply population destroying the resources. We’ve done it thousands of times in our recent history. But it is global this time.
Survivors have no where to go. Everywhere is over developed. Any tiny spot of paradise will be overrun sooner or later as the desperate immigrants. The American South? Overrun by capetbagging Yankees. The West? Too sparse in resources but currently overpopulated. It will be a bloodbath. The countryside in South America, Africa, Asia, the Middle East? All will be invaded by nearby urban centers. As almost every urban area is on water, and water is needed for agriculture, there won’t be enough distance from cities for the farms to survive the locusts. Those that do make it, isolated farming villages, then face two threats that will wipe them out. The failure of electrical systems will meltdown nuclear spent fuel rods at most nuclear power plants ( not to mention combat damaged naval vessels nuclear reactors ). And, if that is too much of a low probability event, one that is 100% guaranteed is the high technology colonization. Those isolated villages, as soon as they run out of modern firearms/ammunition, are now going to fall prey to brigands. The future Mongol hordes will be locusts on the ground, consuming all and causing genocide in their path until they and everyone else is wiped out. The reason it will be so easy is the overpopulation, the limited availability of still fertile farmland unexploited and the surviving tools of genocide ( motor vehicles, ammunition, etc. ). Welcome to extinction.
All of my links and information: