Thursday, June 6, 2013

lessons from peak oil

LESSONS FROM PEAK OIL

I know that a lot of you, eight years later, are still in denial of the whole concept of Peak Oil. Even if you reluctantly tentatively nibble around the edges of it you still wholeheartedly reject it. You’ll pull some crap out of your ass like “the Rockies shale oil will be the equivalent of five Saudi Arabia’s”. They said that in the Seventies also, and maxing out at about a million barrels a day, after fracking all the sweet spots to make a quick profit because of the insane costs and low energy return, it looks like we might get one fifth of a Saudi Arabia but certainly not for fifty years. If I posted this article at Creekmore’s site the response would be ten times worse ( once was enough, innocently trying to save the ingrates a bit of money and being viciously attacked for even thinking we could ever run out of fuel ). At least here you all have learned to be quiet whenever I get on my energy kick and let it blow over until King Kenya does something stupid which distracts me. Of course, I know I am correct. It’s not like this was my idea. I’m just sniffing after a few braniac geologists with college degrees and the top of their fields. Ain’t it just a bit sad that it takes the smartest people around to pick up on simply common sense ( ah, duh! Resources deplete and history is full of failed civilizations which collapsed because of resources falling behind population ), which is promptly rejected by nearly everyone? I don’t think the litmus test for survival is going to be who has the most expensive prep gear but who can fight societies consensus of normalcy and go against the tide. You can’t even plan, prep or preach the worse case scenario to survivalists anymore! They all want soft serve.

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So, what have I learned from eight years of Peak Oil? What lessons did I pick up on? Well, obviously my timing was way the hell off. We haven’t seen a die-off yet except in the all the same old crap holes. Oh, those crapholes are getting bigger, spreading to other neighbors. We as a nation can no longer respond to all of them, not that we should. But as of today ( no guarantee of tomorrow ) we are still alive and kicking and wasting each others time on the rickety old Internet ( there’s a good lesson: our newest infrastructure didn’t take long to start failing ). Not that kicking the can down the road successfully is a lesson. That’s been the governments solution all my life and is just SOP. Nor is the lesson “things don’t fail as quick as you think”. I acknowledge that in this particular case that is true. But you can’t make that assumption all the time because of the inherent nature of assumptions ( they make an ASS out of U and ME ). To assume is to drop your drawers and show your ass to everyone. Don’t do it, for all our sakes.

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And I can’t say that the lesson has been “always plan for and assume the worse”. That is a lesson I learned the hard way several times prior to the beginning of Peak Oil Globally eight years ago. I actually started learning that lesson at the start of my adult years but as I have a very hard head it didn’t sink in consciously until about ten years ago. It might have been there long ago, as my standard defense/response was always to continue to drop my expectations afterwards, but it didn’t hit me consciously until my late thirties. If you aren’t actively thinking about it, it’s kind of hard to plan for it. But even so, at best I would say the lesson would be “our assumptions of the worse are flawed”. I think we suffer from a tendency to have our assumptions colored by lack of imagination, and that right there should be our primary lesson from nearly a decade into Peak Oil. We simply don’t have the ability to see how stupid people are. We point and laugh at the suburbanite who has two days worth of food in his cupboard, but had no idea the President or his handlers could be so idiotic. Corn can make up to 70% of the average Americans diet, so let’s take half of that corn and turn it into a far inferior gasoline substitute. Along with domestic food inflation we can unravel the entire Third World with starvation once we withdraw their subsidized food, putting much more stress on our entire military at the same time we are losing tax revenue. And as a maraschino cherry on top of that stinking crap Sundae, let’s pollute the Midwest aquifer that grows most of our food with fracking pollutants. The lower end is drying up from drought, endangering a healthy portion of our food production, and so we pollute the northern end. Genius.

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And our college educated ( if these brilliant bastards went to Harvard and Yale, I think they need to apply for a refund ) finance fools make the idiots in charge of the ethanol program look pretty smart. Derivatives ALWAYS explode. You’ve seen that from at least the Orange County bankruptcy problem way back when. The Asian Flu, the Russian meltdown, Enron, the housing bubble. Derivatives make you a ton of money and then can burn you for even more if you don’t time it right or are unlucky. Yet these stupid humpers keep doubling down at the derivatives casino! Time after time! Even if/when they take down the entire global economy, if you let them they would do it all over again. Humping idiots, wrapped in morons. Another lesson you might want to pay attention to is that disasters never come single wrapped. They always, at least lately, come in pairs or larger. At a minimum, we are simultaneously dealing with shrinking energy supplies, exploding economies and extreme weather. I never saw that last one coming, which might have been the point. One almost wonders if the whole Tree Hugging Fight To Acknowledge Gore Warming wasn’t a smokescreen. The capitalist fight the socialist and that glosses over the fact that every weather event is worse than the last and we don’t have the resources to fix a single one.

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Interesting times, eh?

END

12 comments:

  1. Also Ravovac has a 25% discount with the word "disney" applies to anything on their website.

    http://www.rayovac.com/Products/Lights/Work/3-LED-2D-Flashlight.aspx

    Good light only $6.74 each with discount and FREE S&H!!!

    Gil

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    1. Dang, looks like my Free K-books comment got vaporized. Amazon had a bunch new free books under the survival search.

      Gil

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  2. Ya know, I've been arguing most of your points since the early 70's.
    Back then it was as plain as the hair on ur ass long about 1980 what had caused the economic turn down. Duh, the price of energy had tripled since 70 ! Being a train driver (read engineer) it was easy to relate that all things boil down to the price of energy and labor. There are no other costs for producing everything, period ! So if the cost of energy triples then guess what, the price for everything must rise by an equal amount. Cept for a lil tiny fact that the price of labor stagnated...thereby delaying the overall effect. Now old Jimmy (Carter) also a engineer of a different sort knew these simple facts and instituted a few programs to help remedy the issue. Might even have produced results way back then if Reagan hadn't come along and promptly dropped all those energy saving programs. Solar ? How quaint, naw we need just waste all our resources developing more war machines...that will certainly take care of the economy...
    So now here we are, the price once again has tripled for fuel... Only this time it went up by two bucks a gallon. Takes a while for that one to balance out ! Meanwhile wages are virtually still stagnant for the working man. Yet we wonder why he can't afford to buy products?
    This go around the answer was to export all the labor out of country to balance the equation once more. (remember...Energy and Labor makes everything) Problem is we ain't all working here...
    It ain't coming back folks. Notice the price of gas has seemed to level off. Not gonna go back down.
    No worries on my end, I can pretty much build everything by hand that I need to survive long term. Can you ?
    If not, you'd best get studying. Cuz James is right , those energy beasts are no answer long term. Unless you know how to manufacture your own...

    Sorry bout rambling on so long James, just thought I'd put my two cents worth in as to why you are so concerned about oil.

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    1. See, people? An actual college trained professional says I'm not a paranoid foul mouthed male chavenist pig with delusions of glanduer. And whose hair is perfect. I know Carter was right and Ron was wrong, but even if Carter had been reelected ( assuming the CIA or whomever hadn't colluded with the Iranians on the hostages ) he would have been assassinated ( and THATS assuming he wasn't part of the power structure to begin with- not sure on that one. Those crazy conspiracy guys think everyone belongs to the Trilateral commission, bilderburgs or whoever the 56th level Masonic devils are ). War is one third the health of the power structure after energy and money. Bastards take a perfectly normal healthy human activity, warfare, and turn it into a dirty profit center.

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  3. Well...I hate to rain a little sunshine on your doom-n-gloom concerning oil, but...I will remind you of the Canadian tar-sands estimates: 1300 years (yes! one thousand three hundred years at current consumption levels). That means that if every single oil well in the U.S. shut down tomorrow, and all U.S. offshore drilling/pumping stopped, and all foreign imports stopped, Canada could supply (from a single oil field in Alberta) all of the U.S. needs for just a mere 1300 years.

    If you doubt this, go to the most liberal newsite on planet-earth (NPR) and do a search for their story.

    So why aren't we being flooded with this oil? They have almost no way to get it here. A true fact.

    An 'alaskan' style pipeline project would drop the price of gas in the U.S. to 50 cents a gallon. Now ask yourself: who wouldn't like that? The answer is: Certain Powers That Be.

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    1. NPR is nothing but a sock puppet for the Obammy regeme. I trust their data as much as I trust official gooberment figures. The whole tin foil hat BS about TPTB wanting expensive oil ignore the fact that our economy was run since the Empire was being formed on nearly free oil. Only nearly free energy, in ever larger amounts, can keep the loans with interest payments flowing. I love ya brother, I love ALL my minions even that chicken molester that owes me $20, but why are you here if all is going to be so wonderful with the world? Don't buy into the sunshine. The only way they deliver it is straight up your ass.

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    2. Dear Anonymous @6:11pm:
      Either your sarcasm is lost on me or you are the most gullible sob I've heard comment in quite awhile. Tar-sand extraction has a notoriously sharp drop-off after the first few years. They'll be luck to get 13 years of solid production before a steep drop off; 4-5 is more likely. The reports you have read are part of the new way to wealth: pump and dump. Pump up stories about how you've discovered the next great thing, get lots of investment, then cash in and get the hell out of dodge.

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    3. Hey anono mouse, hate to rain on your parade but that tar sands oil is not cost effective to procure at less than $100 a barrel pricing. So tell me just how this equates to 50 cent a gallon gas ? Not to mention that it is extremely high sulfur oil and is expensive as all hell to refine into fuel for infernal combustion engines. Course that is science and you are probably not equipped to handle techno speak. I'm sure Lord Bison is well aware of those facts.

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    4. Invade Canada!!! Don't they hate our 'Freedom' too?

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    5. The tar sands require a huge energy and water expenditure to make the oil slurry. It can be used to create gasoline and other petroleum products-yes. It is NOT a replacement for cheap oil.
      We will never run out of oil or oil-like products. We just won't be able to afford them after awhile. -SemperFido

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  4. hey honky
    don yo neber be gibin away mo name

    20$ beech

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  5. Thanks everyone. Glad to see my minions- that's right, MINE- are the smarter bunch around. I'll take credit although I know better. Long live Peak Oil!

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