Friday, June 28, 2013

3pc2v2no16


3PC2v2no16

THREE PHASES CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE

PODA-Back To Tribal Warfare

 

Obviously by now you are aware that surplus energy allows larger groups to prosper.  In an energy decline, groups shrink and the means to expand is short circuited.  Just as in an expansion one action feeds another and accelerates the progress, so it works in reverse under.  Every small set back makes all other actions more difficult and nowhere is this more obvious than in the realm of the military.  You need more troops and more raw materials to feed the troops which is predicated on having more population which needs more resources to multiply.  Without a growth in population, or a transportation network or control of areas with ore, your military can’t grow.  And as you don’t grow other upstarts are constantly challenging you and further exhausting your resources.  And since you can’t grow you can’t do anything other than shrink in size and once you have shrunk you can’t expand again even with a surplus because now you are surrounded by hostile forces that are the same size as you and will ally to stop your expansion because a threat to one means a threat to them all.  You can’t return to empires or even nation states until after some time all this stops being a self- reinforcing cycle.   Everyone runs around in circles screaming like wounded rabid monkeys about how the Federal government is going to form a dictatorship or how the UN will take over the US by kicking in all the patriots doors and steal their plastic poodle shooters.  We are in an energy decline.  Political units don’t expand in energy decline.  You are merely seeing further centralization but that is just kicking the can down the road, not building a new Union Of Kenyan Socialist People’s Republics ( unless that country is smaller than the one we have now ).

*

Warfare, for some time to come after the collapse, will be small scale.  With shrinking political units comes the collapse of trade and with that comes the inability to procure all the necessary instruments of war.  Let’s take a large land area, my own, the Great Basin which is basically all of Nevada except Las Vegas ( that craphole was originally in the Arizona Territory and I wish they had stayed with that state, being a parasite on the rest of Nevada ) and a smidge of Utah.  Technically a sliver of Oregon and Idaho also join in but for all intents and purposes the state of Nevada IS the Great Basin.  You have enough rain for grass on the eastern section to support herding and that is about it for the state outside mechanized mining.  You have one route through the state and that is the Humboldt “River” ( it’s a pathetic sluggish stream, yet for these parts it’s a river ).  One would think that cavalry units headquartered out of  the east could easily control this corridor and control most of the basin.  They could, when it was only the Indians horsing around and sending raiding parties down to Vegas to capture Digger Indian slaves ( I think this historical norm forever poisoned the south/north relations ).  Once you had gunpowder weapons this dynamic was no longer possible.  Where are you going to get components from?  The closest sulfur deposits I’m aware of are in Texas.  How do you control access to that area?  You need a heck of a lot more surplus energy than wild horse fodder to control that thousand plus mile trade route.  You are now an empire without munitions.

*

A very interesting factoid from World War Two was that France was invaded along a transportation route that was largely built on the old Roman road.  Geological features don’t change enough to matter and over fifteen hundred years later armies still use the same infrastructure to fight over the same farmland.  Infrastructure is something that takes a long time to install and use to increase your surplus energy you needed in the first place to install the infrastructure.  When you allow that infrastructure to degenerate you multiply other factors.  Like having an effective military ( as the US has more and more need for foreign oil, it shrinks its navy which is needed to police ocean trade routes, which endangers its oil supply which, when it shrinks, will further decrease the oil it gets ).  Here in the US we have a transportation system totally dependent on imported oil, using an infrastructure allowed to degenerate, feeding ourselves from degenerating soil using imported oil, all held together by a military allowed to degenerate ( allowing females into combat roles is only one sign of many of the rot and decay ).  The US will be one of the first to collapse and its fall will be the sharpest.  And hence its recovery will be the longest.  We will not see a return to the years of Eastern factories supplying cowboys.  We instead will mimic the devolution of China in the early twentieth century to an anarchy of rival warlords ravaging the countryside back and forth, and a foreign intervention like Japan because of the weakness.  And with each destructive battle the spoils will decrease and the smaller the political units and the size of the armies ( without a foreign intervention and occupation which long term allows a recovery.  The intervention will be a grab for spoils and then a departure ) until in the end we have another few centuries of Dark Ages to go through ( the vicious part will be over soon from lack of resources, the long drawn out period to follow will see more limited-if constant- conflict ).

END

35 comments:

  1. Not only has the Navy been shrinking since the Clinton years (from almost 600 ships to a little over 200 today), but I heard the grand Kenyan is going to reduce the Army by a few battalions. Maybe you are on to something.

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    1. Don't try to second guess, I'm always right! :)

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    2. Yup ,you and Rash Limbo lol always right....

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    3. Rush is a legond in his own mind. I, on the other hand, have confirmation from Baby Jesus.

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    4. Yes my son you are forgiven...

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  2. I completely agree with your shrinking energy theory and with your other points. I do feel you don't place enough faith in the racial traits of White European Men however.

    It's true anyone can point at a chaotic fractured warlord type collapse, even from Europeans but while paying lip service to that you also seem to fail to notice that European racial traits quickly push them to a higher mark of socialization and organization. Chaotic periods are brief even in full scale collapse. In sense what some call warlord periods in Europe were anything but to 99% of the population. Not saying all men were equal though of course but in the US these traits will combine with the residue of the Constitution to create an entirely different outcome.

    When events cause almost every other ethnic and racial group to turn on each other it usually has the opposite effect as a whole on Europeans generally speaking. As energy surpluses and other aspects decline as you mentioned there is an increase in other aspects and old almost forgotten instincts kick back in.

    Point in fact the current rise of Conservative groups like the Tea party and aggravated political rhetoric is a sign of racial traits emerging once again. Traits that were not needed as much with a huge energy surplus.

    The old ways are coming back both overall and in the minutia.

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    1. I don't know. White bitches sold out the Constitution for a Food Stamp and a military contractor job.

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    2. Lord Bison of the Great Basin and King of Coiffure;

      While many persons of European Extraction have sold their souls for entitlements and jobs, there are many more that are just quietly grinding their hatchets, waiting for the moment that the Monopoly of Force of the Violence of the State is broken, then the gloves come off and thus perceived wrongs are righted and power shifts. Of course even with the cultural abandonment of Caucasians throughout North America, those who are left are those who prepared, made due and otherwise rejected the multicultural paradigm of our Banker Masters, and embraced the historical paradigm of the tribe, clan and local community. These are the Soldiers who have been saving their ammunition for the fight for true control of their destinies, all other ethnic/racial groups (except for the recent arrived East Asian immigrants) will fall through division and infighting amongst themselves. James you're completely right in the future of combat is tribal based, but you're incorrect that Caucasians will fail en masse. Keep keeping real James!

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    3. Well, sure, Wronged Whitety will be yet another fighting group, but I surely don't think skin color will unite them all.

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  3. Part of what I would expect in such a scenario is vacillations between no law and order and excessive law and order. People would have to be very savvy about knowing how to shift between these two. Defend yourself, if necessary with lethal force, when there is an absence of law and order- but then also not be seen as a threat to the power of the "new sheriff in town" when the heavy handed enforcers decide to not let anarchy reign. This is one of the main reasons why I don't favor even being in a small town. I'd rather be somewhere near a small town but physically far enough away that I can be easily forgotten.

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    1. Good luck with that balence. They'll sniff out your resources

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  4. Along with what you noted about warring factions, in some of the big historical collapses, some of the larger empires lost a fair chunk of their territory, but at least a portion of them survived. Even the collapse of Rome was only a collapse of the Western half.

    A lot of eco-disaster apocalyptic novels have Cascadia (Northwest U.S.) surviving as a unit. Maybe. If it doesn't get too crazy, I think the regions that used to rely mostly on water transport might be do better. You had that whole canal-lake net in the Northeast from New York City to Chicago to the Mississippi that was such a powerhouse.

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    1. A lot better. Water transport is the only way to go withour rail.

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  5. Thanks but no thanks, we have Tucson, you guys get to keep Vegas.

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    1. Take Vegas you selfish bastards!

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    2. give vegas to So Cal (or as it is called now Aztaland / north mexico)

      -grey

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    3. Hmmm. Good point. About the only way to screw up Cali ever more. Give em Vegas ( to my Vegas minions, if any. Sorry to be harsh, but ya gotta move to the real Nevada ).

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  6. Hey jim on a shrinking navy.I want your opinion WHAT KINDA IDIOT STUPID MOFO DECOMISSIONS ALL BATTLE SHIPS!!! There is something wrong with a navy that has no ship with huge guns lots of weapon platforms.We spend a BILLION on our head turd to take a vacation so what if a battleship cost a billion a year to operate!!!A navy Needs a BATTLESHIP its wrong we got carriers frigiates destroyers.A battleship says we are here to kick ass and sort bodies.I am not a navy man but i have seen those guns there is something about a cannon that throws 12 00 pound shells 20 miles.

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    1. Well, battleships don't play well with the enemies airpower. And, we can't throw heavy ordanence like we used to. A few "smart" bombs instead of tons of stupid ones.

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    2. One of the largest failures of almost the entire fleet except the subs perhaps is that a small fast boat from some little ti pot 3'rd world country can acquire the missiles to sink any one of our ships. Let alone a real war against nukes where no surface ships will survive.

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  7. Jim,

    In defence of the Humboldt “River”, it’s not a pathetic sluggish stream. She flows quite nicely for a mountain stream!

    I-80 is actually the one route through Nevada. It just happens to follows that sorta sluggish stream...

    You are forgetting the Nukes in your military thoughts, but so does everyone else. Not sure on how to account/add that into the formula, since history doesn't give an example. I think Nukes have a "Best used by" date regarding maintenance. Didn't the USSR have a bunch of inop missiles and were surprised that the USA didn't? Maybe the PTB will get antsy once that date gets close? Dunno.

    Edward I used the Roman roads to conquer Wales. Roman roads didn't run too far into Scotland and neither did Eddie.

    Crossbowmen who ride horses/mules and dismount to fight ala Forrest's cavalry would be the best bet for survival to a high desert tribe. It's hard to beat light cavalry without airpower or armour.

    Another thinking man's post, Jim. Yegads!
    Gil

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    1. Nukes WILL be used, when the petrol power can't keep our power. Just more crap in the sky like from Japan. If radiation cancer didn't kill me, Obammy's Death Panels would.

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  8. Then you need to have just a little less resources (or the apearance of less) than most of the surrounding populace and be just far enough away to be not worth it.
    After all who is a criminal going to rob? the guy who is just scaping by living in a little ugly place that is hard to get to, or the guy who is doing pretty good, and lives right down the street? Especially if the guy scraping by seems nice and helpfull (aka a near friend or usefull dupe) and the pretty good guy is an arogant standoffish snob (aka a bit of an a-hole).
    Hide what you got, dont seem TOO poor (that makes you a target too for those who have the $$$) but do seem like you are barely getting by as much as you can. Be among the first adopters of the steps downward - say you cant afford the propane so have to use a little rocket stove for heat, that you cant affor a semi-auto, so have to buy a cheaper single shot, you cant afford insurance and maintnance so have to commute by bike, cant afford new school clothes so garge and thrift shop garb for all the family. And when you do make larger purchase make them outside the immediate community. But again dont be the first(makes you stand out) for all these but do be among the first few.

    -Grey

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    1. I don't know about appearing TOO poor. The rich have that racket down such as over-taxing alcohol/cigs and built in taxes ( what is a loaf of bread in hidden, about 20%? ).

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    2. Hell James don't have to appear poor, He is !
      By choice eh...
      Smart.

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    3. I probably have more locks around my place then the 1/8 mile away neighbors living by the power lines. I'm sure they curl their lips every time their SUV hurls by billowing dust, never in their wildest dreams thinking to steal from me.

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  9. Nightshift here.....Good post. A very possible future. I have no illusions of everyone growing organic tofu and living in thatch huts in the future as some do. I do hope that after enough warfare and population decline, we can return to kind of an 1800's existence. Not likely but you can always hope. Therefore I prep to hopefully survive the die-off and famines, and hopefully start up a food producing homestead. Already working on both. Been lucky enough to end up with a bunch of semi like-minded neighbors even if not "preppers" they got goats, fruit trees, gardens, chickens, guns, you know the drill. Alot of country folks have a different mindset than the yuppie wannabes. I wont show my food cards but you gotta get your fruit trees and bushed going. Small inconspicuous garden is pretty easy when you have some wooded acreage. Might just feed the deer for now but you can beef up security later as needed.

    Anon 10:51, That is a good plan, about the only one. Kind of what Jim is doing albeit a larger town. Just dont buy unusual supplies in town. Sure give the business so they get to know you, just no prepping type purchases. You get the idea. And dont think UPS drivers dont remember what you order either. I posted on that before.

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    1. Shouls we add UPS/FedEx to the list along with bankers, politicians and lawyers?

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    2. Nightshift replies to his Lordship, albeit humbly.....UPS folks are good folks around here but half their waking hours are delivering packages. Alot of it is remembered, perhaps sub consciously. I have a friend/aquaintence that works at UPS part time and part-time in a store. I was suppossed to pick up a delivery of ammunition for a friend who was out of town. That address got screwed up and ended up at the terminal. Anyway, I spoke to here when I picked it up and she started rattling off some of my co-workers who get alot of gun/camping/food stuff delivered. (Before I retired from Law enforcement) Anyway, granted she trusted me but the point is they remember interesting deliveries.

      I dont think they are criminals like bankers and lawyers, just opsec risks.

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    3. Okay, it might be a bit harsh to equate them with politicians. I guess we are all a little gossippy at work.

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  10. FYI there are some sulfur deposits in AZ.I have come across a few outcrops of it in the cinder hills/San Francisco mountians.

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    1. I was going by a 60's world atlas, thought I might miss recent sites. Good to know AZ isn't totally useless.

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  11. I just did a quick read of this post but frankly, I'm getting to old to give a fuck about a lot of things as long as I have a little food and my gun powder stays dry.

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  12. A lot of eco-disaster apocalyptic novels have Cascadia (Northwest U.S.) surviving as a unit.

    I live smack in the middle of it, maybe, if we can keep others from coming here, this is a life giving area.

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