Friday, June 14, 2013

3pc2v2no13


3PC2v2no13

THREE PHASES CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE

PODA

 

Peak Oil Dark Ages, while sinister sounding and none too pleasant initially, is nothing more than a reset to normalcy.  It is the process from Petroleum Age back to the Agricultural Age.  It is the draw-down of carbon fuels back to solar based energy ( plant based, not PV panels ).  My generation and our great grandchildren will likely suffer from the transformation but after all is said and done normalcy returns as it always done.  The bad part isn’t the end of oil, because after all is said and done the main difference was only the short lived luxury afforded a larger percentage of the population than historically normal, yet rather the end of an empire.  That is the messy part, the geological and economic rearrangement.  Someone else is going to take over, doing things differently and in a different location.  We can compare this to the end of the Roman Civilization, but of course with major caveats.  The main difference is the lack of resources to rebuild.  The main similarities are the collapse of a complex infrastructure and its replacement with a simpler and localized substitute.  Giving up Our Precious, “our” oil ( most of it belongs to other people but we’ve come to look at it as ours [ does the “Carter Doctrine” ring a bell? ] ) seems like the end of the world.  But it isn’t the lack of fuel that will suck but the lack of our civilization based on global plunder.

*

Our nation’s Industrial predominance was never based on oil.  We built an economy on water power, wood and coal.  We built an empire on oil, but it was never an economy.  The economy was plunder and oil was the fuel for our military.  All of our past glory has already been spent.  We have no more industrial factory output, and we don’t even have the petrodollar economy that fueled our last two generations.  There is no more empire, we merely sit around and wait for the dismantling.  And that would be okay, as witnessed by the gentle slide into obscurity of the last global empire.  But since this is no longer about just us but the entire globe running out of energy to run an empire, there won’t be another country to come along and rule things globally.  We are all going down together, with some faster than others but all of us in the end squabbling amongst ourselves, starving in the dark.  The 500 year old experiment of colonialism has ended, not for lack of will but of resources.  We started out plundering previously unexploited soil, used that up, applied petroleum to the soil to keep feeding ourselves, used up the oil and now face most of the a situation where most of the soil has been degraded with no more feedstocks to fertilize it.  We are now, globally, at the point of Rome where it had no fertile soil, no silver to buy foreign grain, no military to steal others grain, and a huge population to feed ( and some think, another weather change ). 

*
The fall of Rome was so long, as was the recovery, because over time the empire had centralized activities to both profit those in power, to conserve energy and to serve a growing population.  Once the treasury was depleted along with the soil and the resources to police the conquered area, centralization was no longer possible ( primarily, an inability to transport long distances the trade items that were specialized in one region ) and with no local infrastructure the die-off was worse and the recovery  was prolonged.  Today, everyone is crammed into urban areas and the food is transported long distances.  We are indeed Rome.  We have been in a prolonged collapse as in one last ditch effort to profit the powers that be and to save energy, everybody and everything is centralized.  Come the lack of energy to continue to send the food to the cities, it will be collapse.  There is no local means of feeding, even in lush well watered areas, and any small pockets of organic farming, permaculture or eco-villages will be overwhelmed by the masses immediately.  Then, after a population mass die-off, recovery will be slowed down considerably by infertile soil, constant warfare and lack of infrastructure.  The amazing thing is that no one wants to face up to this historical inevitability, desperately clinging to fantasies such as North Dakota frack oil or organic villages somehow being left unmolested. 

*

The big difference we will face is that there is no knowledge base to fall back on to decentralize and that there are no more unexploited regions to recolonize.  Now, for awhile Rome with its stupidly parasitical tax policies did manage to drive off quite a few farmers from their land  ( the land already overworked but high taxes eliminated even that reduced output ).  In localized form you can see our future.  No farmers meant no one knew how to rebuild.  Those areas closest to Rome were the ones that lost almost all population mainly for this reason.  Those areas farther away, who could sometimes carry on farming despite Rome, because enforcement was harder to impossible longer distances from the capital, they retained more population after the fall because they still had knowledge available.  Nowadays, no one knows how to farm small scale ( when I say no one, I mean in general.  The few Amish and organic practitioners, extremely small numbers, most likely will be killed in the die-off and all the teachers will perish ).  It is going to be AFTER the die-off, not during, and the recovery rate will be worse than after Rome.  And not only are there no more areas to colonize, there is no more ore or fuel reserves to get anywhere close to the technology we can keep now.  The Industrial Revolution was started by hand dug near surface coal and man recoverable ore of near pure composition, the tools simple iron pick and shovel.  That is no longer available.  It’s going to be a few interesting centuries.

END

 

32 comments:

  1. I just wanted to share my math about food and surviving as The Finely Folicaled Lord Bison recomends...
    So here it goes.
    At 1 lb of COOKED grains and legumes per meal (a significant amount of water is that weight but we will figure it as though it were dry) and 3 meals per day for 3 persons for 7 yrs (2555 days, 7665 meals) requires 24000 lbs per grain/legumes (or 3500lbs for 3 persons 1 year).
    Sounds outragous and impossible to store doesnt it?
    BUT the math breakdown isnt quite so bad.
    I couldnt find a direct conversion pounds to cubic volume but I found the following indirect one :

    Grains and Legumes wiegh about 60 lbs /bushel = 400 bushels of grain and legumes for 7 years for 3 people.
    A bushel is equal to about 1.244 cubic feet = @ 500 cubic feet for 7 years 3 people. Still sounds too much doesnt it but these are CUBIC feet not linear, so that translates to about 8 foot on a side. (hey now, most OSB boards at hardware stores are that long on a side and 4 foot on the other isnt that NICE!)

    So two 8ft x 8ft x 8ft cubes could contain the minimum calories for 3 people to live for 7 years. a Bleah diet but survivable. Or a 10 x 5 X 2 'closet' could hold as much as the 8 foot cubes and be utilized as one wall of a room... HMMM...
    Pack DRY in air tight containers (mylar?) with Diatamacous earth and O2 absorbers, kept cool and dark, the grains and legumes should be able to last many decades.

    Bushels of grains and legumes are NOT expensive if you get them direct from the source or as untreated 'animal feed'.
    Pricing them is unfortunately a local personal matter but should be less than 20$ / bushel grain and less than 30$ / bushel legume,
    Buy 2 bushels each at a time, pack one away for long term storage, eat the other, when you get half way through the eating bushel pick up 4 more, etc, etc, soon you will be eating and rotating and have enough food to survive the biblical famine that struck egypt and made the farmers into serfs.
    It can be done even at poverty level.
    The only excuse is laziness. How lazy are you going to be when you are starving?

    Hey Jim, where/how are you storing your 7 years worth?

    -Grey

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    1. Thanks for the math- cool. I'm staying with the expensive 5 gal bucket method. Buckets should be gold later. If not, no biggie. It keeps each shopping trip reasonable so I don't lose motivation.

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    2. Starving will be the least of your worries.
      storing that much food using the methods you described do nothing more than make you a target.
      You haven't really been paying attention , don't you realize whats coming?
      better bury it and get the hell out of the house and hope for the best.

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    3. The white buckets tend to get a split/crack across the bottom when used alot. Every bucket split/cracked. (I used a couple for cat food and cat litter. Separate ones of course!!!)

      Gil

      Free on Amazon!!!!

      Catyclysma (some egypt god turns luvable Fluffy pets into human eating felines. For all those cat lovers out there, Hey Jim!!!)

      The Fiscal Cliff Cookbook

      How to Survive While Living Unemployed, Poor, or Broke in America

      Mormon Mission Prep: A Practical Guide to Spiritual and Physical Preparation

      Practical Prepping: Be Ready For Disaster Without Driving Yourself Crazy

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    4. I'm getting the cat book! Most excellant! Die dog loving human vermin!

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    5. Oops! It's now $3, but that's okay. I'm still getting it.

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    6. 527- starving is the only worry. Only a very few individuals in just a few places can survive while mobile. The rest of us need stockpiles. Of course, burying is good.

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    7. Reply to annon 5:27
      My point wasnt that you _have to_ store it in an 8x8x8 cube but that you COULD store it in that little space. It is obvious better to hide a weeks worth here, a month worths there, etc, etc, and if you do the big cube that should be in addition to your basic stores- an addition that you use to barter for security and good will from your neighbors, and that you can show them when it is empty...
      Burying it works but people begin to wonder how many outhouse holes you need after a while, especially if they are starving and you dont seem to be starving so much.
      Better to hide in more accessable but easily overlooked places- in example, inside the spare tire in the (now permanantly) garaged car, or as a frame for your furniture, inside interior walls, etc, etc.
      Food can be created with seeds but growing that much all the time now makes you as big or bigger a target than the guy who bought all that horse feed. Better to stockpile until farming is secure again.
      Water filters good for decades is the next math excursion I have to take- and figuring out the reliable lifespan of a constant use grain and meat grinders are the next.
      Ideally most prepers will invest in quality to pass down to their descendants, and so on until the prepping tendencies become largely genetic.
      Just my $0.96(two cents after inflation).

      -Grey

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  2. My two Bison Survival Blog CDs arrived.

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    1. And remember people- the more you order at one time the cheaper the postage is. Buy now for X-Mas!

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  3. Good point about knowledge. Barring the Amish and a handful of others, nobody really has the skills to live a 19th century life anymore. Not to mention hand tools are a real workout!

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    1. See how much sense panic and dispare makes?

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  4. Lord Bison of the Great Basin and King of Coiffure;

    Today's Post reads just like out of William R. Catton or Jared Diamond, Well Done! Yes the heavily armed refugee hordes will do very well to avoid the killing of agriculturists in both horticulture and animal husbandry, however since the hordes have been conditioned by sixty years of immediate gratification, they will kill first, ask questions second, by which it will be too late to feed the hordes. Too bad for them, it was a good run and all. Hope to Baby Jesus that they all starve very, very slowly so that the bitches can see their stupid trophy wives and spoiled spawn keel over with absolute hunger augmented by long-term radiation sickness! That is what McCarthy should have written about in the Road, instead of the absolute last of us, attempting the 'long march to the dead sea.' Thanks for the refresher Lord Bison, you always know how to stoke the fire of class hatred, so elegantly. Keep keeping it real James!

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    1. All you chicken molesting asswhore know I'm all about the elequence.

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  5. That's pretty much how I see things breaking down except I disagree about a rural die off if the rural areas survive the liberal/Feminist attack phase anyway. Without abundant cheap fuel the inner cities horde will never be able to hold more than 50 miles of territory around the cities.

    Sure there will be raids but the rural farmers and their families will survive them the same way they survived them in the 17 & 1800's. There will quickly be small forts everywhere. Some will fall but some will not. The refugees coming out of the cities peacefully will be the new peasants who will work the land for the ones who have knowledge and land.

    Come see me after the collapse I will make you a vassal :)

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    1. It just takes a few semi-intelligent ones to get out of the city early, before the rednecks organize, and there's the cat in the mouse house. Sure, ya got semi's. How fireproof is your house?

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    2. Well I am building MY house to be completely fireproof (and against small arms fire too as a nice side note), and interestingly enough most SMALL communities have a thriving volunteer fire and paramedic departments, small towns know they can be wiped out by fire or flood and take reasonable (but affordable) measures in the place of trying to get major leauge sports teams or fighting criminals.

      -Grey

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    3. Grey-No, but they do sponser high school sports. Still a waste, and I imagine on par with the city and the major team. But the volunteer side is nice.

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    4. Not that much spent on the highschool sports and little of it directly from taxes, instead usually the parents and fans 'booster'. Team sports is not a total waste, they know which teen to give the improvised hand grenades to, have a mascot (and flag?) to rally to, and have taught the military age males how to work as a team to accomplish a goal under pressure.
      Combined with a knowledge of the area and a tradition of hunting with single shot rifles from camoflaged blinds, small towns have at least a prayer of creating guerilla style defensive patrols, if their authority structure is halfway smart, as the collapse progresses they will do so, and keep the boys out of most forms of trouble that youth in the bigger urban areas will get into.
      Of course I will prove at least as wrong as right but it can happen.

      -Grey

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    5. I disagree on the cost of HS sports. The coach is paid ( salery plus retirement and bennies ). The real estate for the fields. The bleachers. The buses. And on and on.

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  6. Your thought process is very good. Survival on the fringe of livable landscape has been a norm for people since the beginning of the end of the last Ice age. I like that you live on the high plains, a hard scrabble place for sure.
    One thing that may enable some small groups to thrive are biofuels. Can't save civilization, but could enable a "protected" group to live a near modern life. The biggest problem with biofuels is the negative press provided by the oil industry to psy-op everybody into believing it is not economical when it is. I am an Agronomist dealing with Farmers on a daily basis, many of whom could produce most if not all their own fuel and I know of only one who has attempted a "micro" refinery. He is currently producing over two hundred gallons a day of bio-diesel. Cost is 2.73$/gallon. This is a doable deal for most growers growing Canola, but they are all (most all)brainwashed into believing it is not profitable.

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    1. Sure. Use food for vehicle fuel. What could go wrong?

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    2. Jim, for the _farmers_ it doesnt have to be either / or does it?
      They can use the not so good stuff for fuel for the equipment to grow more food and fuel, and eat and sell the better quality stuff. Sure it would be a trade off to keep all our societies vehicles including speedboats and jets going, but on a small scale, to keep the machinery to keep people fed going? - that just make sense. And, if the food becomes more important than the machinery their is obvously labor available to replace more of the machinery, which can be parked until there is a surplus again.
      And as the oil inputs decline (as long as it isnt too sudden) it is possible for other inputs to be used instead (treated sewage fertilizer to grow the crops to feed the machines that grow and harvest the crops to feed the people that make the sewage).
      Such adjustments will be made, it is just a matter of HOW much machinery and how Painfull the adjustments are.

      -Grey

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    3. I see your point. However, we won't adjust sensibly because no one guages by energy but by monitary units. Screws up the equation.

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  7. Judge Dredd today, ROBO Cop tomorrow, Terminator next week, StarWars next month, Flintstones next year, I fear the writing is on the wall, video evidence is on youtube, and your faith better be in God, the Psychopaths "in Charge" OBVIOUSLY work for someone/thing extremely Evil. Let's face it we are being deceived from EVERY angle and it is nothing new, We are merely more aware of this deception in-fact there is a undeniable amount of EVIDENCE. There is no "theory" of conspiracy, IT IS ONE.
    denny from chicago

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    1. I like your timeline. But no large animals for the rock quarry. We'll eat them.

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  8. http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?51900-PREP-FOOD-Food-Insurance&highlight=harmon++seaver

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  9. perenial food crops and wild food calories

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  10. At my age I've decided that the end is just going to be something interesting to watch while I enjoy a few beers and take pot shots at those going by to keep everyone alert.

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    1. I'm much prettier and younger than you, and I agree with what you're saying. Do your best to kill as many as you can, then don't worry if you join em.

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  11. Well, I used to be a handsome savage. :-)

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    1. Don't take it personal. I'm prettier than everyone ( the Tom Cruise types have small penis', so their looks don't count ).

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