Tuesday, May 7, 2013

3pc2v2no12


3PC2v2no12

THREE PHASES CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE

DIE-OFF

How Do You Rebuild After Resources Run Out?

 

Hubris is a wonderful thing.  The Greece civilization, after its military downfall attempting to protect its sea lanes to ship in grain from afar, was left with denuded soil and treasury.  Rome, after its military downfall attempting to protect its overseas grain areas, was in the end left with no farmland worthy of feeding the masses, no silver left to buy any grain from elsewhere and no military left to protect against barbarian incursion.  The American Empire is in the process of losing its oil which keeps its farmland producing, and will in the end be left with no treasure, no food and no military.  In a circular feed, our military protects our access to foreign oil but our military is only able to function with that oil which is only supplied because oil importers accept our currency which is only worth anything because of the oil countries accepting it, and that is in exchange for military protection.  Our economy, our food supply and our military is one battle away from collapse.  All it would take is the Saudi production or processing facilities to be destroyed.  Even if we import little to no oil from Saudi Arabia ourselves, the rest of the western economies do.  And more importantly, the Saudi’s ( providing ten percent of the globes oil ) are the ones who force through the PetroDollar standard.  Even if they are never attacked, once they hit a high enough annual production decline, the effects will be the same ( and despite all the idiots out there proclaiming Saudi Arabia capable of doubling production for another forty years, they are already contracting ).

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Besides the economic aspect, this is where the US will follow the aforementioned civilizations.  Our soil wealth has been drained, and any civilization that uses up its own soil, then steals and/or buys others is on the downslope of a collapse.  And that is your civilization die-off.  Remember those quaint stories of the city of Rome being reduced to the size of a small village, with sheep grazing in the ruins of the Coliseum?  That is what collapse and die-off look like, and if you think we can escape that fate you are delusional.  In the 1970’s oil shocks, the US was importing 12% of its oil.  That 12% disruption changed our economy in a decade from an industrial powerhouse to an indebted banker run service economy ( and once the debt grew enough, to not even that ).  A few years ago, we were importing 60% of our oil.  After a demand collapse and all that fracking activity, we’ve reduced that to 55% ( and somehow the morons thinks this is energy independence ).  We are a hell of lot more dependent on foreign oil than we were in the 70’s, and that disruption was a lot worse economically than the last five years of contraction.  But forget economics, the issue here is that oil is what feeds us.

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Without ( basically ) free oil being imported, would we be able to continue feeding ourselves?  Almost all of our soil has been depleted ( all that cheap corn we fed the rest of the world with which to bribe them into stability sucks nutrients out of the soil ) and so increased amounts of petroleum feedstocks are substituted.  And not only is oil and natural gas being substituted for healthy soil, we must ship that produce all over the country to feed the megacities which no longer have nearby farmland.  And not only is oil being substituted for food and food being shipped thousands of miles to consumers, we are either dependent on irrigation or are suffering from weather extremes ( as are all other grain producing countries ) which effects natural rainfall.  We are a crisis or two away from not having enough food to feed ourselves ( and don’t forget to add in the increasing population of illegals we keep importing to keep up growth for the corporations ).  The days of the US being the world’s breadbasket have been over for some time.  We might still be producing record amounts, but there is now too many people to feed, even with oil inputs.  As soon as the oil is disrupted, suddenly or over time with a sudden tipping point, we start to collapse.  Economic collapse merely means we can’t invest in any solutions.  It gets a lot worse once we can’t feed the urban masses ( are you sure you want to still live in the city? ).

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Along with the food issue, we have water and ore problems.  Water is being polluted, fought over between farmers and suburbanites, moving locations as we lose snowpack’s, or being delivered off schedule by Mother Nature.  Ore has been depleted to the point where now only huge machines and enormous energy inputs allows minute concentrations to be mined.  When oil inputs are no longer available, our ore supply contracts sharper than you’ve seen recently.  So long alternate energy or much of anything else we need.  What all these combined means is that we are on the abyss supplying our population, and when we no longer can, and we collapse, the survivors no longer have any soil to grow in or ores to mine or energy to recycle the processed ores we have constructed already.  When that 3% of humanity tries to continue to survive, where do they grow their crops?  They will further deplete the soil that is already used up, trying to force any production, fight over that meager output and continue to contract in numbers.  When others say we are mining all that is left to keep Business As Usual, this is the outcome.  Because we are desperately consuming all that is left to keep kicking the can down the road, the survivors of the die-off will have little to nothing left to live on.  We will indeed fall below Hunter-Gatherer concentrations.  Until the soil naturally builds back up, say a thousand years or so, and we start the whole process over again as we’ve done for ten thousand years ( the only difference this time is its global in size instead of regional, and we’ve had oil this time to go longer before the end and that will make the die-off much worse ).

END

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14 comments:

  1. Dang-it Jim, You're scaring me! Got a year to go...

    Some thoughts:

    There will be travel restrictions because of the emergency, we will be bound to the land, job for the duration of the emergency (forever)

    Imagine the perks working for the government getting better or seeming that way to the average wage slave

    Your worst enemy will be your rat-fink neighbor.

    Gil

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fear of travel restrictions was the fire under my ass to move here. If my neighbors rat me out and the Emergency Town Council confiscates my food, I think it would be justified if I killed and ate the bastard. I better bury a knife down in the neighboring gully.

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  2. In addition to your bleak picture of the post-apoc future in the U.S., you can add to it roaming hordes of Chinese repo-men salvaging any precious metals. Including the jewelry and gold teeth to be found in the cemetaries. They WILL be paid.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats funny! But, I imagine thats a fine idea folks here can use. Thanks!

      Delete
  3. Are you right jim? well Yes and no, the understanding and education is more widely spread now than ever before- so the die off will be pronounced BUT the education about things like sanitation, water purification, composting to build soil depth and fertility in months that took nature decades, etc, etc. These are all KNOWN and widely enough these ideas will not disappear without a deliberate concentrated effort- and maybe not even then. The available resources in space combined with scavanging and sacraficing here on earth may allow generations after the die off to rebuild and possibly even thrive beyond what we have achieved today. Of course space isnt 'affordable' now because the procedes would have to be split too many ways to feed shelter and clothe too many mouths and people arent willing to make that minor sacrafice of one less candy bar today in order to give their ungrateful gradkids a box of them in the future. BUT that attitude will change with the die off.
    And with enough of us being practical enough to see the possible die off coming, getting the knowledge and minimal supplies together in a geographicly (and socio-politically) spread enough fashion SOME opportunity will be presented for our descendents.
    Which is why I am hoping for a sudden die off - clean nuke war, solar flare, super flu, etc.
    to leave them more of the resources we will consume with buisness as usual while the systems collapse around us.
    Its sad to hope for such sudden massive and probably painfull death for so many, but they system is dying and the lingering pain will be worse for our descendants without some form of mass winnowing soon.
    And hey! maybe somebody can pull their heads out long enough to start getting those resources on those other rocks in sufficent quantities before the die off on this rock gets all the way to a totall collapse and our descendents have to totally rebuild. Not likely considering the collapse is already happening.
    With mixed feelings about the whole thing I have to say you are WRONG about the rebuilding- should even a dozen survive, within less than a hundred years and definately less than 500 we will probably be harvesting other rocks for resources. Or our race will be totally extinct along with most other vertabrate life.
    -Grey

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My problem is, you need to have plentiful petroleum to colonize space. Which we will all use up. Could we colonize space on frack oil? I think we needed to do so when we still had shallow rich gushers in Texas/OK/LA ( the same oil that allowed us to win WWII- we couldn't have done it otherwise ). Also, you might have given me an article idea today ( will knowledge of germ theory make it into the future? ) , so thanks!

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  4. Sounds to me that if we plant hemp we would need little or
    no chemical fertilizer. Federal law forbids raising hemp.
    http://www.thespringoflife.net/hemp.html
    http://tinyurl.com/36a2227
    http://www.ecomall.com/greenshopping/sdethemp7.htm
    http://ezinearticles.com/?Advantages-of-Growing-Hemp&id=2679607
    When most plants grow, they deplete the soil of vital nutrients and leave it with less vitality for the next crop. Hemp actually revitalizes the soil it grows in, both by aerating the soil and through the deposit of carbon dioxide in to it. This makes hemp ideal for crop rotation, and the crop that follows in the soil hemp grew in will develop better than if hemp had not been used.
    These have been just the benefits from growing the plant, but there are even more for applying it. When hemp is used in the production of paper, fuel, and plastic substitutes, the resulting products are much cleaner and greener. For example, tree made paper requires the use of many harmful chemicals, both for the production and as preservatives. Hemp paper does not need these chemicals, and hemp fuel burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel.


    Ron Paul is for growing hemp.
    http://www.hemphasis.net/Fuel-Energy/fuel.htm
    http://www.thespringoflife.net/hemp.html
    Hemp (Cannabis sativa) – Hemp immediately makes us think of drugs. But there is no need for that! Marijuana is made from a different plant of the same family. Hemp contains such a tiny amount of THC (the psychoactive chemical found in marijuana) that it has no negative effects on humans. Hemp is actually one of the most healthful plants ever known to mankind. On top of that, it lends itself to the production of paper, cosmetics, building materials, textiles, non-toxic diesel fuel, paint, varnish, detergent, ink, lubricating oil, etc. Hemp is an unpretentious plant that can be grown in many climates.......
    Hemp seeds contain omega-6-fatty acids, omega-3-fatty acids, gamma linoleic acid; 25% of high quality protein with all essential and non-essential amino acids; 20-30% of carbohydrates; dietary fibre; phytochemicals; the minerals phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, calcium, iron, and zinc; vitamins A, B1, B2, B3, B5, B6, C, E, folacin, and biotin; carotenoids; and chlorophyll.
    Internal use: Hemp oil comprises 75-90% of essential fatty acids. It helps to prevent arteriosclerosis, heart disease, heart attack, stroke, and blood clots, and it significantly reduces the symptoms of neurodermite, rheumatoid arthritis, and PMS. Hemp oil lowers blood pressure and cholesterol levels and dilates blood vessels. Hemp oil is very helpful in case of infections, allergies, skin diseases, liver spots on the skin, dandruff, dermatitis, and brittle and dull hair. It improves the condition of hair, skin, and nails. Take a tablespoonful of hemp oil daily or add it to salads and other foods. Add oil after removing food from direct heat. Both hemp oil and hemp seeds boost the immune system. Hemp seeds help lower the levels of cholesterol, high blood pressure, and high blood sugar; they relieve and heal the symptoms of arthritis, depression, fatigue, constipation, and migraine. Hemp seeds are good in case of food allergies and food intolerances. ..............
    (article is too long to post here)
    You are requested to add my name - Eve Juurik- and my website address - http://www.TheSpringOfLife.net - to the article. All the material is copyrighted. Thank You!
    Many blessings & success to You,
    Eve

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not only does "The Emperer Wear No Clothes", he likes to show his ass. Hemp was outlawed to continue Federal Thuggery and enrich the big companies. A good crop to keep in mind post apoc to be a better farmer. And, smoking pot is better stress release wise than alcohol ( which uses food ).

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  5. Please engage brain before putting mouth in gear.

    re: When that 3% of humanity tries to continue to survive, where do they grow their crops? They will further deplete the soil that is already used up

    There is plenty of good un-used up growing land if you only need to grow for 3% of U.S. pop. (I'm not worried or care about what happens collapse time in other countries, as long as they are collapsing too)

    You Know Who

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ten million people was about the 13 Colonies. Who had a lot of virgin land and in the best part of the country. We don't have that today.

      Delete
    2. So... WHAT is your point?

      We have a lot more land today than the area of the 13 colonies.

      On what do base : "in the best part of the country"?

      Where does your knowledge come from that you can compare the growing ability of land in the U.S. today?

      Have you any REAL experience having a large garden continuously year after year?


      You Know Who

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    3. Take the area that gets natural rainfall- no irrigation areas. Subtract roads and buildings. What do you have left? For ten million people.

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  6. Lord Bison of the Great Basin;

    Thank You for the great article, written in true Catton Style about resource depletion and population overshoot. This being said, knowing the huge energy requirement for the Bessemer Process to make steel alloys, can and will happen in areas that are traditionally known for their resources in bituminous ignite (i.e. Western Pennsylvania and Eastern West Virginia). Though 98 to 99 percent of us now won't make it past year five of a thirty-year collapse, there will be enough to restart the steel industry, thus facilitating the recycling of what Kunstler calls the "goldmines of the future;" junkyards and landfills, to rearm, regroup and start the whole damnable mess over again. Haven't you read A Canticle for Leibowitz by Walter Miller? Superior Post- Apoc Sci-Fi to be sure. The whole idea of recycling would be extended to ammunition production eventually as well, with time and effort. Thanks for the shout out to Catton. Keep keeping it real James.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Catton should be The God for all of us, education wise. My issue is, we've used the coal and ore accessable by primitive methods and now need large machinery to extract. Haven't read Canticle, never could get into it.

    ReplyDelete