Monday, March 4, 2013

oil war three or four


OIL WAR THREE OR FOUR

As I keep trying to tell everyone, there will be no repeat of World War Two.  World War One was basically a war over empire and colonies, with preliminary thrusts towards middle east oil control but merely on the margins ( British investment was to secure naval fuel ).  The combatants had colonial wealth and Industrial Age wealth to squander, or were at the point they could bet the ranch since they were failing anyway.  World War Two was mostly about controlling the oil, by this time the worlds new primary fuel ( and the ability now to copy the German process of producing nitrates from natural gas- a technique mostly monopolized by that country in the previous war ).  Japan and Germany had stockpiled resources to fight for the oil supplies, but they had no resupply once hostilities commenced unless they took them by force.  When one thinks of reenacting the war, they can’t think of another country emulating the Axis powers unless those same preconditions exist.  The Axis ( you can include Italy but their inclusion was more for propaganda than real utility ) were industrial powerhouses prior to the war, so their economic activity allowed trade for those resources they didn’t poses.  Their military build-up did not happen in a vacuum.  So, to replicate World War Two, you need all belligerents having a very strong industrial base, both to ready for war and to persecute it.  And you need lots of oil and ore.  You don’t churn our battleships and supply ships by the day without plentiful metal and fuel supplies.

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FDR, a crippled evil little troll of a spawn of Lucifer, was a silver spoon rich bitch east coast blue blood Yankee prick.  The bankers had him in their pocket.  He was one of the original banker butt boys.  They crashed the economy, either through ignorance or greed, and then screwed it up more through Keynesian print and spend.  Getting us into a war was the only answer.  FDR came through splendidly and at the mere cost of a few hundred thousand Americans he saved or enriched the bankers, as the case may be.  We’ve talked about this more than once.  The point here is that need alone is not sufficient to use war to “save” the economy.  You also have to have the means.  The US no longer has the surplus fuel, the willing populace, no where near the ore or the industry, to fight another conventional Industrial war.  Vietnam was the last conventional war we fought.  Everything since then has been on a much smaller scale.  So small it is a drain more than a stimulus.  Because turning from a civilian based industrial economy to a war time base was a one time event.  Since then, the Cold War was about keeping spending close to the same levels as WWII.  The spending stayed the same, but the output from that spending kept declining.  We are no longer at a stimulus level but rather the economy has been on life support transfusion from military spending.  Take away our expensive but tiny wars and what was left of our economy? 

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So how do you revive the economy by proposing another global war?  We haven’t the money or the resources to even keep us at the level we are at now ( the Iraq war was a drawdown of inventory, Afghanistan more of a Special Forces mission than a whole country occupation ).  The empires military has already started to contract.  Look at the recent action in Mali, yet another poor bastard of a country cursed with oil.  Before, they were so insignificant that no one bothered them as long as they postulated themselves before the oil companies, agreeing to demand no more wealth than what was necessary to keep a few head honchos in tidy Swiss bank accounts.  Well, now that the US isn’t getting much in the way of cheap oil anymore, tiny African countries like Mali, or marginal producers like Libya or Syria ( there can’t be much oil left there as it has been fought over for near a hundred years ), are starting to smell a lot more like prey.  We sent in about a hundred troops and provided the French with transport for its soldiers.  The West WILL have Mali’s oil.  When all the cheap oil is gone, stealing modest producers oil makes a lot more sense.  The next best thing to a gushing sweet oil well you own, profit wise, is one you steal ( assuming the theft doesn’t come with the added cost of defending it unduly- such as in South America or Iraq ).   Okay, all this is just common sense.  But review the above.  One hundred soldiers.

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If that doesn’t scream “over-extension” to you, what does?  In effect, we are trying to steal as much of the “good” oil left as we can.  We did it on the cheap, kind of ( drawing down inventory from NATA ), in Libya.  We tried in Syria and ran up against Russia ( as in other places such as the ‘Stans ).  We even got our ambassador/CIA bitch killed as we were trying to control the factions on the extreme cheap.  A lot of this has to be wishful thinking and even hubris, but some of it has to be we have no other choice.  Our assets are used up, scattered way too far even as we try to extend into more and more areas.  You can call it whatever you want, I think the current buzzword is something like “pre-deployed assets”, but in the end you are stretched way too thin.  And we can’t extend the military to fill in the spots as needed because we placed all our bets on robotic war ( high tech wonder toys rather than boots and tank treads on the ground ).  All our wealth and resources are in that kind of war and there isn’t any left to do it any other way now.  As in our farming and housing and freeways, we are stuck with the infrastructure we already laid and can’t get a “do-over”.

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6 comments:

  1. Love to say something but still shooting tootsie rolls into my haynes over that FDR description.

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    1. And don't even get me started on Lincoln!

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  2. Great minds or at least paranoid schizophrenics think alike. If you get a chance read my post for yesterday and today. Curious what you think, since it is your fault I got involved in all this to start with. the rat

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    1. well, since you deleted them I have no idea. A shame, your views are appreciated here. Don't self-censor. Screw em all if they don't like your opinion. Crap on a cracker, its friggin free to read. Your true readers offer constructive critism and the other asswhores can be ignored. I agree on your funeral article. Let me dig my own hole on my land now, and just role me in when I'm done ( make sure I'm actually done by waiting for me to bloat/smell ). Peace, brother.

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  3. I wish I could describe my enemies like you described FDR. It would take me a month to come up with that stuff. Been reading your blog here for a few months. Good stuff.

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    1. Don't feel bad- it took me years of practice before my inner voice took over and started doing all the hard work. And please stay a loyal minion- most folks wise up after awhile and leave so the attricion rate is high.

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