Thursday, March 28, 2013

kamikaze ben


KAMIKAZE BEN

A minion disagreed with me that our fundamental issue is resource depletion.  He understands it is coming, but at present blames all our woes on the evil asshat Powers That Be.  Now, I’ll say my piece in as short a statement as I am capable and then we will just go from his presumption.  Which, I don’t necessarily disagree with, just with needed caveats added.  Okay, energy is needed for resource extraction.  Energy has become much more expensive both in monetary terms and in terms of the additional energy needed to extract the energy in the first place ( Saudi light sweet crude might require, in the good old days before well injection, one barrel out of twenty as the cost of pumping/equipment, etc.  Deep water wells need one in ten or worse.  Shale oil worse than that and ethanol not even one barrel of energy is net profit out of every barrel invested ).  If energy is much more expensive, and at the same time ore density has gone to crap ( the amount of ore able to be extracted from each ton of earth, and all that requires energy to process ) because all the high density deposits are long gone, you have a basic problem.  As energy becomes dear, and is being diverted to other things such as war, the much lesser dense ores will not be processed.  You have some, of lower quality, still in place, but they are not mined.  That is our current dilemma.

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But enough of that.  Leave it for another day, and believe me I’ll never let that sleeping dog lay for long, and let’s just look at economics.  We can argue with each other until blue in the face on Malthus and geology, but I think it is pretty evident that when it comes to economics the picture is crystal clear.  We are in too much debt, the rate of added debt increases yearly, in a downward pointed economy ( no recovery in over five years ) so that taxes can never increase to pay off any interest ( when the only jobs added are public which requires yet more revenue ) I think most of us would agree that in the long term, our economy is screwed.  We can’t do much more than just print our way out of it, and that way always leads to ruin for all but the 1%.  Not that THEY won’t be effected, if they stick around.  So what makes you think they will?  The United States certainly won’t follow the Britain to the letter in empire collapse, but the transition of power from them to us almost a hundred years ago is instructive.  Their war ruined them, pure and simple, and their stranglehold on their colonies with resources were not the ones needed for the new Oil Economy ( too much in India, not enough in the middle east ) so those added to the burden.  The UK bailed and the fire sale to America certainly didn’t benefit the population at large ( of course, neither did the earlier imperial profits so one wonders if the masses even noticed much ). 

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I wonder if the PTB, mainly the bankers but also those corporates and politicians in their favored circle, haven’t already started to sell us out, the transfer of national assets being used to buy a lifetime of luxury well away from the soon to be burning ghettos of America.  If America is stone cold broke, she turns into a colony of whoever can buy the resources from her on the cheap.  A certain irony here indeed, as this is exactly how the US treated most of the rest of the world for sixty years ( and parts of it previously such as the agrarian South after the war ).  When we weren’t diverting national farmland into our luxury crops we were indenturing nations financially through our global currency.  Now, America doesn’t have a lot to offer right now.  The surplus corn we used to send overseas to buy stability has been turned into ethanol.  This was damn stupid, as X number of tons of grain got us cheap petroleum, whereas now the same grain gets us a dribble of very expensive pseudo-oil.  But there is one way that this country can have enough goods to trade that will please our foreign masters and enrich our rulers, and that is to reduce the indigenous population to such a state of poverty that they can no longer consume what is to become precious trade goods.

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I’m not suggesting that China will become our ruler, and we a mere colony.  Not officially.  Economically, we will be at their whim.  The Stars And Stripes will still flow, but on par with today’s state flags.  It’s there for show, and the dark reality is that of a vassal region.  We will need to ship most of our production overseas, not because we owe them four trillion in Treasury bonds.  That means nothing, given global inflation.  It is because at this point, American consumers are costing our rulers, and China is a paying customer.  Who do you think is going to win?  American cities full of unemployed and welfare recipients, eating luxury food, driving around in cars fueled at taxpayer expense, their houses heated the same?  Or foreigners who can pay for that food and energy?  We will be just like Argentina.  Broke, and with the poor going hungry as whole regions grow soybeans to be shipped over to China.  We are already at this point, but it isn’t noticeable because we are still resource rich enough, or at least not economically screwed enough, that we can feed and fuel our population.  This will continue to change as the poor receive less and less so that the rich can sell more and more to real customers.  That means everybody can look forward to a lot less, from Social Security recipients to civil servants to the unemployed.  Even to private sector workers as goods are shipped overseas without even being first offered to local consumers.  What is left will be priced dear.  Like two buck ammo, for instance.  See, we are screwed economically with or without resource depletion ( scarcity is enough ).

END
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20 comments:

  1. Why folks want to deny reality on the resource depletion issue is beyond my ability to comprehend. It is without doubt the single greatest cause of our economic woes. It basically started way back in the early seventies and we have failed to catch up since.
    Can't recover that which is unobtainable.
    End of story.
    Turn out the lights cuz the parties over....

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    1. Hell, we can't even argee on 9mm or 45. And I could be wrong as there is a first time for everything. I'm of course kidding.

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  2. 45 all the way ! I'll use my 22 if I need to hose down the neighborhood.

    No way you're wrong cuz my wife say's I'm always right lol, and she's never wrong.

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    1. Does the joke ever get old? "I thought I was wrong once but I was mistaken"

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  3. But people have been sold on the idea that the U.S. is full of magic and special people (not in the special education sense, but in the special special sense) and that economic growth comes mostly from ingenuity and hard work. Durn burn it, we got lots of that, don't we?

    To say American prosperity is/was due to our ability to grab a piece of resource rich property that was geographically protected from major enemies and squeeze is dry is to deny everything we got taught in American History and Civics class.

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    1. Remember what the Nazi's said about the big lie repeated constantly. I was just reading the banker whore official publication, The Economist. Got a free issue at the library magazine donation rack. Defamed Malthus, said all the wests riches were from human ingenuity. As if people before 1500 were simple morons lower on the evolutionary scale. I think the morons are publishing a magazine from London.

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  4. A good model of what the future could be here in the U.S. is Detroit. If Detroit, one of the world's great industrial cities, has been allowed to degenerate into the shithole it is now (average home value $7,000) then any and all U.S. cities may follow.

    Rural areas are always best, but the PTB are making it nearly unaffordable to keep and maintain a vehicle, which is a must-have to get to your job.

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    1. I should focus on living poor rurally, trying to decouple from currency. The car is the weakest link.

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  5. Jim here is a idea obozo signed an executive order saying the goverment could nationalize anything it wanted in a crisis.What if the bankster made him enact it on all major industries {minning,agri,oil]to secure the dollar and its debt.What would happen?

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    1. Why nationalize when you already regulate? You would merely decrease production after putting political cronies in charge. I can't see the banks going for it. Remember, all the gold in the world costs less than the official US debt, as does the total of all proven oil deposits ( of course, both are held lower by derivatives, but we won't get into that ). The only game is hyperinflate, then issue another currency.

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  6. Everybody knows the 9mm is better.

    I'm sure you've researched the issue and you have great hair. I'm still not buying it. I've been lied to all my life by teachers, politicians, so-called experts. You read a book written by an expert and you believe it. Folks that believe everything they read or pick up on the internet...

    It's like you're making up an excuse for the evil bastards.

    (insert Sally Struthers' voice) The PTB have to kill us off, over population, resource depletion, global warming. Turn yourself in to the nearset FEMA camp. It's for the children.

    The company I work for buys tons of steel, alumininum and brass. A few years ago the chinese bought everything they could and created a shortage. It was temporary, there is no shortage now.

    The feds created the ammo shortage, the military and DHS are buying up everything. Americans are panic buying. The ammo shortage will end if the feds back off.

    The ammo manufacturers have zero incentive to produce more ammo. They're not going to invest money in new machines or hire and train workers. It ain't happening. They know that sooner or later things will calm down and sales will return to normal. Folks have enough ammo to last several years.

    It has nothing to do with resource depletion.

    If I were CEO of Federal or Remington I'd make a huge donation to Janet Napolitano's run for president in 2016. That would increase
    ammo sales for sure.

    I really don't want to argue. Especially not with a guy that has such a magnificent mane of hair. At least we agree that we are screwed. The collapse is coming.




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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. The debate was fun, but I'm glad we agree on collapse. The details are less important than the destination in the macro sense ( although the micro can bite your ass ). Peace.

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  7. We owe China 1.161 trillion dollars. Total foreign debt is about 5.311 trillion dollars total.If you add up all the debt held by social security and all the other pension funds, about 30% of the national debt is held in trust for peoples retirements. I own savings bonds, part of the national debt is owed to me.The United States current holdings and income equal approx. 188 trillion dollars.We could increase the National Debt to 25 trillion dollars, fix our infrastructure, rebuild every school in America and put everyone to work and still not default. It is the gutless, evangelical, scared of the dark conservatives who stay up nights worried about the end of the world and the frigging national debt. the rat

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    1. How do we have so much income if we are borrowing half the yearly budget? Our "holdings" and "trust funds" and "lock box's" were spent a long time ago. Nice to have you back stiring up the pot of crap. It keeps my ego in check if nothing else.

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  8. Dude, gotta read Parable of the Sower. Octavia Butler. It's the most likely RL outcome packaged between 2 covers.

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    1. I have it and can't seem to get past the first few pages. One of these ddays I'll try again.

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  9. Good views of the subdivisions south of Elko and a little on the NE suburbs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_0AHkexHCA

    Jim, Elko weather has been the same as Florida for the past few days!

    April in Elko is wool sweater and long johns. Only one knit cap, right? :p
    Gil

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    1. lONG JOHNS!!! Hell, it is one sweater in the morning and shirt sleeves by noon, once it hits the 40's.

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  10. Metallic ore depletion is a moot point.
    Energy and Economy are everything.
    We can recycle and mine the dumps of previous generations -IF- we have the money and energy to do so.
    But since the energy is running out, and the money is loosing value daily, soon recycling the ore content will be too expensive in terms of both money and energy (and digging out the new stuff is also getting too expensive too). The decline will not be instant, but it will gett steeper and steeper until it is vertical and hits what ever bottom might be. Die off will be multi-phases, I think we are already in the first part of the die off, with most of the die off coming to second and thirdworld oil colony nations ('Arab Spring' and Gulf Wars I&II anyone?) and those with chronic medical conditions that will be too expensive to treat in the developed world dieing off next (that has started with 0bama-care just speeding things along). Phase 3 die off will tie to Phase 2 with the older generation getting less treatment for their conditions, and being unable to afford the necessary nutrients (thanks to pensions and social security not being inflation adjusted) to maintain their well being. What phase4 die off will be? I dont know but I bet the inner city ghettos will be the ones to get it or maybe that will be part of phase 2-3?.
    Productive citizens will be the last to get it, but productivity is NOT citing in a skyscraper pushing papers, it is digging dirt and felling trees, etc, Which is why I am convinced that plague and or 'clean' nukes will be used in the major metropoli within a decade or two at most.
    The elites in charge are trying to consolidate their power and tighten their grip because they know things are falling apart and they want to come out on top, but to master the billions of people in the world they will have to winnow them down to a more managable number or risk being overwhelmed with pure numbers. So how they arrange to do this winnowing combined with the very nature of the collapse will define who dies and who lives.

    - Grey

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