Thursday, February 28, 2013

3pc2v2 no4


3PC2v2

THREE PHASES CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE

SECTION ONE-economic collapse

THE NEW AND IMPROVED PEAK OIL

 

Way back in the day, let’s call it about 2004 give or take, I got serious about Peak Oil.  After skirting the issue for a time, another cautious sniffing about as I tried valiantly to ascertain whether or not this was a legitimate concern for survival or just another scare designed to part me from my money, I concluded that yes indeedy we were all going to die and started studying the problem in detail.  I was a Johnny-Come-Lately but what I lacked for in originality or foresight I made up for in the zeal of a convert.  From then on, all other matters of concern such as North Korean nukes ( snicker! ) or economic collapse ( yawn, old news ) or Massive Descending Waves Of Vicious Jihad Box Cutter Warriors ( I call extreme bullspit on the misguided theory that government is NOT involved in a false flag attack on 9/11- go tinhatters! ) or what not or whatever took a backseat to the obvious but always overlooked problem of having the needed energy to keep the grocery stores stocked.  From this point on, the prism I looked through was oil and its unsteady supply.  Even to the point where most of my readers get just a smidge tired of hearing about it ( although, in my defense, I do throw in other subjects such as female nipples in the movies and other titillating [ get it?  Nips, titillating ] matters to keep things fresh ).

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My basic assumption for almost the last ten years was that the oil was going to run out.  In 1970 when the US hit its peak oil production, we had the rest of the globes supply to make up for what we started to lack.  Of course, the Arabs took complete advantage of the situation and charged what the market could bear ( we had been importing oil since the end of WWII, but it wasn’t until our peak that imported oil went from being a nice thing to have because of profit increases to a must have because it was all we had ) just like any good capitalist would advocate which makes it a little hard to take their price gouging with anything other than benign acceptance ( when you can snatch the peddle out of my hand… ).  Today, as we start to run out ( we started running out in 2005/6.  That was peak conventional crude production globally.  Everything since then has been Crap Oil ) there is no Saudi Arabia or North Sea or Alaska to turn to.  Hence, my assumption oil was running out, period.  Ah, but reality is not so easily explained in hindsight but only in forecast.  While it is true that conventional oil is stalled at a peak and hasn’t yet fallen ( given the always present fluctuations, at least it appears it has yet to start falling ), that is with more exploration and more wells.  In short, we are at the point in Alice’s Wonderland where we are running as fast as we possibly can for the Red Queen, but we are standing still.  The only way to go from here is down.  But not just yet.

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For a short while old technology which was stashed in the back of the cluttered closet has been desperately found, dust blown off and proudly implemented amidst much chest thumping and broad self-congratulatory crap eating grins.  Look at us, shout industry experts, we are using high tech to extract oodles and gobs more gas and oil and the country is now energy self-sufficient and we now have hundreds of years of oil.  Yuzzah!  Go USA, go USA!!!  Okay, so much for the hype that compels the fools to be parted with their money and provides an opiate to the dumbed down public which needs to wipe the drool off their chins every once in awhile.  Fracking oil and gas is very expensive, and it is a short lived thing.  It is not unusual for a well to max out production in one year and start dropping.  This is not the technology ( which, by the way, is decades old ) which will take us hundreds of years into the future.  Not even decades.  And look at the numbers ( mass hysteria and public panic used to be caused by breaking out the algebra or calculus.  Now, simple addition and multiplication do the trick, if the publics attention span is any indication ) with frac oil.  It did wonderfully and saved our ass, yes.  But it only increased our domestic production 20%.  As our imports decreased by twice as much.  Remember the old complaint about government numbers lying?  The politicians screamed and wailed and gnashed teeth that the budget was being cut, yet all that happened was the annual increase was reduced.  Here is the same thing.  We have less oil total, but since our own production increased, suddenly everything is groovy. 

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For the time being, going from convention oil to crap oil ( ethanol, a screaming bargain of half our corn crop for ten percent of our gasoline.  Tar sands, an inefficient way to get oil out of natural gas.  High sulfur crude, expensive to refine but worse very destructive to infrastructure.  Deep well drilling, at half the energy return as the worst performing land wells ) has served the same purpose as going from Texas to Saudi Arabia.  We have kicked the can down the road.  We have kept the numbers up for production.  Forget the need of the economy to grow every year or collapse, at least we have managed to survive a few more years.  But we are still contracting.  Every day, slightly less oil is imported to this country.  A lot of it is going to China and India, who can pay in better value currencies ( whether in gold, barter, or even future good will as the probable new regional powers that will fill our empires demise ).  And a lot of it is simply no longer imported as the oil countries need it for their exploding populations.  Bottom line, we have a bit of breathing room, but the trend has not reversed ( we are still running out of oil ).

END
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8 comments:

  1. Hmmm perhaps they will nuke to lower demand and competition from the far east ? Good war always evens the odds. We do after all have high unemployment, what better way to stimulate the home base economy and better yet reduce the younger population.
    Shoot our generator has been running steady for a year and a half from swamp gas alone. No worries here bout running out of fuel for electricity. The marsh do provide...

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    1. Okay, true. But doesn't it also provide malaria? Just saying.

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    2. Ya do have a valid point there James. She-it we all gotta die sumtime...although we have provisioned somewhat for that scenario too ( we plan on just having sacrificial yuppies tied up all around the perimeter as bait )

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  2. My God, Jim, you are sounding like an optimist. In fact we have peaked. In fact are "net" energy is declining fast. Go to Dieoff.org and page down a little bit to see the chart labeled "More Liquid Fuel but Less Energy". Our net energy has been going down rapidly with or without the frack stuff. You should be urging us to panic more and not saying we have a "bit of breathing room"... so uncharacteristic of you...

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    1. You bastard! Don't ever insult me like that again! OK, kinding. Althogh optimist is an insult. No, I was going for "this is why we haven't already crashed, so don't get comfortable". I did state frack oil wouldn't even save us for decades, so the implication is just years to go. And I did say imports are declining all the time. The EROI is going to be another section ( and I appreciate the above link as it might give me more data ), which I just shorthanded with the verve and wit of "crap oil". Come on, I'm throwing out gold here. But I do stand corrected on one thing- I should be inciting more panic. If I don't, who will? The Mayan Calander guys with their new, new, improved and modified date of doom? HA. Peace brother.

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    2. oops, sorry. Kidding, not kinding. And although is misspelled. Shut up, I'm only on my first cup of coffee.

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    3. Coffee has never improved your spelling but we love you and read you nonetheless.

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    4. OK, let me rephrase. Coffee allows me to catch most of the spelling errors you DON'T see. And thank you for the love.

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