Friday, January 4, 2013

3pc2 economic collapse

3PC2
THREE PHASES OF CIVILIZATION COLLAPSE
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
The first phase of collapse in our current civilization is economic collapse ( phase two is Die-Off and three is Post-Oil ).  Note that this is not a guide on civilization collapse throughout history, because by and large most of them don’t leave very good records.  Although history as we currently understand or interpret it certainly guides us.  All civilizations throughout history are surplus resource guided, but our current one is unique in as far as the resource involved.  Not that this means that the collapse will be different, only that the velocity will not be the same.  Petroleum is a one off energy source and we are clearly running out of the easy and cheap stuff.  Well, we already have run out.  Ethanol and tar sands are not the petroleum we fought world wars over or turned over global economic control to the Central Banks with.  Our complete and total livelihoods are 100% nearly free energy dependent.  We might never run out of oil but long before that the economy built on cheap and gushing oil will have collapsed.  And with it our ability to literally survive.  Oil is the food we eat and 99% of all our dwellings are so poorly constructed, designed and built that without constant carbon fuels input they will become our freezing or baking tombs.  Economics are not important for a civilization, until the resources start running out.  Then, economics act as a multiplier force with resource depletion to make things oh so much worse.
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Because our economy became a parasite to energy mining, with the closing of the mine comes the end of the economy.  It isn’t too much more complicated than that.  Capitalism needs financing to run and financing needs interest to survive and the only way to pay back a loan plus interest is to experience growth in the economy.  And the growth has to come from additional energy.  Be it foreign wars to steal farmland and forests and ore mines for the Romans or an occupation force today to assure middle east oil continues to lubricate the global trading network, the addition of resources into an economy drives the economy.  If the supply declines or even stops growing, your economy stops.  Not to mention the extra population you then can’t feed, but we’ll leave that to the die-off section.  Look at today’s economy.  The only thing running it is an increase in debt.  NOT resources.  Not energy.  Just debt.  And the energy supply has contracted ( we might have more domestic supply but the total usage has shrunk ).  There is no way to pay back the new borrowing, let along simply its interest.  You could steal every millionaires money, tax it at 100%, and the federal government wouldn’t last a single month on it.  That is the state of our economy.  It is already Game Over and the only wiggle room is guessing how much time is left before kicking the can down the road will stop working.
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A farmer gets a loan to buy land, a loan for the fertilizer and machinery.  After the crop comes in the trucking company with loans for it trucks and a 30 day lead time to pay its diesel fuel will haul the grain ( or, the train company with loans similar to the semi’s ) to a company baking bread or raising chickens using loans for its land and buildings and machines.  The grocery store takes delayed debit payments for food and they have loans themselves.  And the food buyer needs a job to buy food.  Even if they are on Food Stamps they still require a bus to take them to the store which was bought with a loan from the bank to the city and they all up and down the chain burn fuel needing military protection to import petroleum and so on and so forth and without a functioning economy the whole thing doesn’t work.  In essence, the economy is just smooth trading.  And trade is global.  We must pay the traders to get our necessities and the traders are failing due to lack of funding which the bankers can’t provide because if the ability to pay interest is declining then the bankers couldn’t very well loan more money.  If you can’t get paid for outstanding loans due to contraction, you can’t give out mores loans because they would be 100% guaranteed to NOT be paid back.
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I despise bankers for the evil pit of vipers that they are, but the simple fact is we are at a point where they can’t be allowed to fail.  Oh, they will, but not until we can’t stop it anymore.  Yes, they brought us to that point through control of the money supply and bribing Congress to cede control of the economy a hundred years ago.  But the system can’t change because of the complete web of control already woven.  The economy WILL crash.  It is only a question of when.  You can dress up that pig all you want, apply some lipstick, but it still isn’t a suitable date.  Its still just a pig.  And guess what?  Almost all survivalists are tied completely into the economy.  And they won’t admit or recognize the extreme danger this places them in.  If they do, they then start dancing and singing about how much longer they will certainly have ( a favorite is to fantasize we have much more oil to keep things running ).  You can easily insulate yourself from the worst effects of the economy, but of course there will be a price to pay.  No free lunch folks. 
END
End part two, plenty more to come in the future.

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4 comments:

  1. Maybe its not that we had to few resources, we just had to many people using the resources. But bankers need to lend, gov needs more people paying taxes a population explosion was a good high, while it lasted.

    If a person subscribes to the theory that our economic situation is engineered, and that the goal is to save what's left of the resources for the elite. Then, wouldn't it make since to collapse this system before the few remaining oil reserves are squandered on the peasants?

    If so, it is a possible time line for bad things to come.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You have done it again...

    Wiser words on the economy have never been said:"Capitalism needs financing to run and financing needs interest to survive and the only way to pay back a loan plus interest is to experience growth in the economy."

    Are you listening Mr. Bernanke and other central bankers?

    Keep up the good LB.

    Jack Schitte

    ReplyDelete
  3. Your brevity is enlightening.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I thought you might like to see an economic chart
    Middle of page http://money.msn.com/investing/an-epic-bear-market-is-coming
    look at the peak trading of NYSE shares. isnt that really close to the peak 'sweet/cheap' oil internationally?

    -Grey

    ReplyDelete