Monday, December 3, 2012

empire of old

EMPIRE OF OLD
A minion made the comment about how the Banker Controllers will screw us all and then move on to the next fiat currency starting the whole ‘money from nothing, their chicks for free and then famine and disease for the rest of us after hyper-inflation’ all over again ( with the possibility of a one world currency ).  Now, I usually listen to minions, but then quickly discount anything they might say unless it contains the buzz words ‘buxomly wenches’, ‘bullion’ or ‘book’ gifts or a variation on how good my hair looks.  My first thought was, no way we are going to have a one world government with energy contraction since our governments will contract to feudal local powers.  And then I got to thinking a bit more on it and realized he might be on to something.  It is natural to assume a one size fits all collapse, but perhaps we might see various levels of technology, all based on the amount of available resources.   It reminds me of the old game “Traveler” ( I think there might have been two “L”s in there ).  I don’t know how many of you have ever heard of it, it was a role playing game, pre-computer Dungeons & Dragons era, with a science fiction rather than a fantasy base ( although there were “psi” powers so the game would also attract those fantasy geeks ).  Different planets had different levels of weapons and technology.  At the time I thought it was a retarded system, assuming that any group with primitive weapons would just trade up.  But of course at the time I had a much narrower grasp on history.  I think we might actually see something like the African spear chucker’s being  mowed down by British machine guns again.
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Assume that the Oil Down situation eventually goes from economic downturn to civilization collapse.  Some areas are going to be much worse than others.  We here in the US are going to have the worse time of it as all our systems are multiple-times dependent on wasteful petroleum consumption ( sure, we have a lot of fat in the system and can contract quite a long ways before collapse, but there is also close to zero solar energy infrastructure available  ).  China is a bit of a wildcard.  How much infrastructure do they retain after civil unrest after economic collapse?  How easy is it to feed themselves ( they are nearly self sufficient in grain, but beans for protein and fat-the luxury items well off citizens now see as normal- are heavily imported.  Soy failures here and in South America are system destabilizers there )?  But it probably doesn’t matter all that much which country is our new colonial master when all is said and done.  We will still be someone’s bitch.  No, they won’t be a super oil power like today.  But if someone retains enough of a lead in petroleum production they can actually have control devolving into simpler superior technology.  I’m not saying an exact repeat of the Wild West with steam trains and Gatling guns, but it might be close.
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No one needs to retain todays mechanized mass armies to retain control, they just need enough carbon fuels to beat their enemies.  Just liquefying coal for diesel trains could mean a superior transportation system compared to the country that has no gas to keep its truck fleet going.  If the manufacturing sector was still running on coal, and the big rigs mining the coal had coal diesel, the return on energy was in essence a mute point.  In wartime, such as with the Nazi’s and the South Africans, fuel efficiency was a low consideration.  There is still a lot of coal out there, the only problem with it is that it is all low energy grade stuff anymore.  But a whole mountain of the stuff is good enough when your colony has no means to duplicate the mining effort ( a high fuel use, high energy import nation such as ours has a very good chance of socially disintegrating long before the fuel runs out.  A lower use industrial power could keep us destabilized by arming rebels and then occupy our energy producing areas.  I’d be far away from a coastal well/refinery area if I were you ).  I don’t know if the new global superpower will be reduced to using sail to transfer troops to America and food and fuel back, but just a much lower level of oil burners would also do the trick. 
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And there is your new British Empire.  It needs very few resources to defeat and occupy if in relative terms they are much higher tech than other places are.  The one country that destroys the least amount of infrastructure could become the new empire.  Think back on how lopsided things were in a war with only one side having air superiority ( again, it isn’t going to be who keeps today’s systems operating.  But who figures out how to do the most with the least amount of fuels.  Duplicating the tactical edge but avoiding the waste ).  Even a blimp force is superior to no aircraft on the other side.  If your neighbors contract to a savage all against all with everyone running out of ammo, you can march in with a mere battalion or whatever and kick their ass with little effort.  And whoever has this slight edge in food control, infrastructure use and surplus nitrates for modern weapons can enjoy the snowball effect of conquest controlling more and more resources.  We might be the new Africa not only because of the violence and pestilence coming, but also because it might turn out to be quite easy to colonize us soon.  Once we devolve into squabbling tribes, starving and out of modern ammunition, a local enemy supplied with just a few cases of ammo and a few bushels of food becomes the new warlords answerable to the new global power.  In that case we get a one world currency again like the silver sterling or the petro-dollar, but I doubt the old bankers will be invited to share in the spoils. 
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5 comments:

  1. Most of China's infrastructure will degrade faster and more than America's since it is of lower quality to begin with.

    They will last a long time if they make soylent green (old people, accident victims, and cancer patients) and if they promote homosexuality and make AIDS kill faster (excess males).

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  2. Nightshift says, hey I got like 4 out of 5 of your key words in my email. I feel special. Good post, I would not bet money on it occurring but a very intriquing idea. I need more ammo and grain. I thought I'd share that my 20 year old son wants to get a camper or shed to put at his moms place to live in. I started giving him ideas from you. Thanks Jim.

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  3. I think the tech systems will be able to be powered in the future. A street camera or computer uses a lot less power then a tank or plane.

    Light, motorized infantry. Get to area, dismount. See Nathan Bedford Forrest. Or those trucks w/MG in Africa.

    But my point is this is a few years away. Yes, we did hit peak oil in '05. But we are on the long downward sloping side. We both will be dead when there are no more jets in the sky.

    Good job, Jim. You might not get as many comments on these type of posts but keep it up.

    Remember Twilight 2000 RPG?

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  4. Lord Bison of the Great Basin;

    In response to your post; I say BRING IT ON, if some 'intelligent fourth rate power' who didn't wind up killing each over during the collapse wants to come over here and make the attempt to salvage/extract the remaining natural resources, I would wholeheartedly invite them to make their attempt. As MAJ von Drach of the Swiss Army writes, it only takes a dedicated solider with a primitive weapon to kill a soldier with an advanced weapon, and thus turn that advanced weapon upon the occupiers. Not speaking for the majority of the oppressed, however me and mine have been training for just such a scenario as you've envisioned, which is why no-one can discount the destructive potential of the human mind, when that human mind has its back up against the wall. As the writer Jonathan Swift once wrote "Necessity is the Mother of invention." Keep keeping it Real James!

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  5. Sorry Jim, as finely folicalled as you, and MOSTLY right as you usually are; are you are wrong about one thing - thinking that the bankers wont be invited to the party when it gets to the level of best supplied warlords- Instead it is going to be the bankers and their cronies doing the inviting. I give as an example to G.W.Bush. Yes a mouthpiece puppet of the bankers, but look at what he has= well armed friends, PLUS 24x7 secret service guards (I think I read somewhere that he treats them fairly well too), and MULTIPLE off grid pieces of property with masonry built homes, sources of energy, pantries, and well built bunkers / fences--- All while being an "oil-man".
    If you look you will find more and more rich well off people with banker ties owning similar things, maybe not as well known or frequently lived in as the Bush 'Crawford Ranch' but the bankers aren't stupid, they KNOW resource contraction is coming and they intend to ride the collapse in a way that keeps them on top of the heap no matter how much smaller the heap ends up being.
    Bush the 4th could end up being 'President for life' of the south texas republic..... Or something similar for other insiders of note in many other regions.

    -Grey

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