Thursday, December 13, 2012

danger of lucky

Things sure are quiet out in the survivalist talking heads land.  It is almost as if everyone is all skeert about the Mayan Calendar and so aren’t trying very hard to put forth material worthy of me stealing.  So, I somehow pulled out of my ass today’s subject, the danger of our “lucky recovery”.  Okay, not necessarily a recovery, but our ability so far to avoid total social meltdown.  While everyone else is sucking hind tit as far as oil supplies, we still declined in supply but managed to slow the decline with an additional million barrels a day frack oil and ethanol.  At this point it is a victory if you are better off in the decline.  In the race to the bottom, the last one there wins.  While everyone else is taking it in the shorts as far as monetary inflation, we’ve been able to STILL soften the bumpy road with the tottering but not wrecked Petro Dollar.  While smaller countries are seeing widespread malnutrition, we are still able to enroll more rather than less into food welfare programs.  While some places see 30-50% unemployment ours is still only 20%.  All in all, most other places are having a harder time dealing with Oil Down.  Those never comfortable with Peak Oil are now pronouncing it Peak Imports and admiring the very soft landing we just experienced.  And taken on its face, we should all be giving a big heaping plate of “Oh Thank Humping God For Small Favors”. 
My basic point is simply that should we continue to be just as lucky, very, very soon you will as an individual still be affected in a profoundly negative way.  When the pie is shrinking sooner or later you get your piece taken away regardless of its diminutive stature to begin with.  When the unemployment growth rate is a constant one third to one half million additional folks each and every month, no one can say their job is secure.   This unemployment growth has been going on for something like five years.  Are you betting on staying employed in five or ten years?  That seems rather silly.  I’m working minimum wage and I have no expectations of continual employment.  One figure I’m recalling off the top of my head is given current figures there will be about zero oil imports by 2020.  That barely assumes a tad more than doubling the timeframe of the Greater Depression as we’ve already experienced.  I see that date as being optimistic, but let’s go with it.  In seven years our energy for most of our transportation and a quarter of our electric goes away.  Are you thinking our economy can survive that kind of energy deficit?  And need I remind you, transportation feeds us all?  Even if we pulled a miracle out of our ass and went totally organic, or at least marginalized petroleum field inputs, we still could not get the food to the cities ( and could the rolling brown-outs give up enough power to store and cook the food if it got there? ). 
Doubling the deficit is wonderful for the bankers.  Even at reduced interest rates they are pulling in the green.  So that bought us a lot of time.  Yet, the day isn’t far off given our current borrowing ( from ourselves, NOT foreign governments.  Every time I hear how important China is to our economic future because of debt purchase, I scream and wonder if the idiot is working with three year old figures.  China is marginal compared to what we create out of thin air ) when after interest payments there isn’t even enough to pay for the military ( and that is even if we pull out of the middle east ) let alone highways or Food Stamps or whatever.  Hyper-inflation isn’t far off after that.  You can only borrow forty or fifty percent of your budget every year for so long.  Forget your grandkids paying that debt.  At the rate of growth it will be wiped out one way or another.  So, given the rate of growth in interest payments to the bankers, do you really think welfare will last.  Medicare is done.  Social Security will follow.  There are thousands of free money programs and they will not last.  Everybody loses if you are at the federal trough.  Just eliminating Social Security COLA will impoverish Seniors in a mere few years given the true inflation rate. 
Economic contraction, however slow, plus oil import decline, however slow, and the gradual pullback from global monetary control, with the unending steady unemployment growth.  Even if the country as a whole is staying together, all of us individually are already in decline.  We’ve all been making choices cutting back and doing without, and things simply aren’t getting better.  How do you constantly make cuts and sacrifices and still convince yourself you have plenty of time to prepare for worse?  Every time you eliminate more surplus you limit your options for the future.  Act now, and act like a lower class lifestyle is your very near future.  Because even our so far slow contraction is really cutting near the bone, already, in just a few short years.  Great that we didn’t crash, but macro doesn’t translate into micro anymore.  You are the sacrificial pawns keeping the system as a whole alive so far.
I’ve already got three books converted to Kindle with a fourth awaiting approval.  “Frugal Survivalist”, “Life After The Collapse”, “$3k Homesteading” with “Bison Newsletter” in the works.  If you look over on the right of this web page you’ll see the boxes with the Amazon page links.  I still have a few hundred words left on the “AGP” book before I publish it.  I’m just shy of 15k words and I consider that a bare minimum.  No hope of writing at home, the cloudy days simply won’t quit.  But still, it shouldn’t be too much longer.
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1 comment:

  1. think your china comment is a bit off

    re: how important China is to our economic future because of debt purchase

    better check out how much debt they are buying...