Wednesday, July 18, 2012

syria, playground of empires

SYRIA PLAYGROUND OF EMPIRES
Remember awhile back when I was rambling on about Libya?  Trying to figure out why we were involved in such a marginal oil producer, I just made a wild ass guess that we helped Europe secure their own oil to prop up their economy so that all our central banker loans wouldn’t go down the toilet ( and speaking of loans, the FedGov is at it again with the “super deluxe low interest loans” instead of actual disaster relief to drought stricken farmers, just as that was their answer to cities going bankrupt.  Such is the desperate greed of the banks that they further their own systematic meltdown risks in search of yet more profit )?  While it wasn’t all that far fetched- the US got involved in WWI which both ensured WWII but also helped the fledgling Communists get a foothold in Russia, all to save the loans the central bank gave to the Allies- I wasn’t altogether happy with the theory.  Although, as hair brained as it was it was most certainly much better than “securing Democracy for our little brown Muslim brothers”.  The scary part is not that the FedGov thinks we are silly enough to buy that but that we actually do.  Anyway, today I’d like to advance another silly theory about the new meltdown, Syria.
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Keep in mind this might be way off the mark.  Unlike most writers on the middle east, I don’t have a Double Top Secret ( see “Animal House”, the dean puts the fraternity on Double Top Secret Probation ) source that I meet with over espresso who spills all the secrets to me.  Kind of like the double secret sources that divulge UFO landings, cancer cures or 250 MPG carburetors to authors that honest Injun ain’t after making a buck off their tell all books but only have the best interests of all mankind in their hearts.  So, keep that handicap of mine in mind as you judge whether this theory could hold any water.  I submit for your consideration, Syria is the latest contrived rebellion in the war over oil.  But it isn’t about controlling the sources of oil ( if I’m not mistaken, Syria has even less oil than Libya, and Egypt has zero ) as much as using the Shia/Sunni conflict for domination as a patsy play to control the price of oil.  Since the dollar dominated oil trade is ending and the era of the PetroDollar is past its peak, the US can’t subsidize its economy with printed currency.  If you recall, we guard Saudi Arabia and friends, they make payments for their oil mandatory with dollars, we print up dollars and pawn them off to everybody and everybody uses those worthless pieces of Monopoly Money crap to buy their own oil as few others are much better than we are at being energy independent.  We got oil for free ( and we still couldn’t hold our economy together, morons that we are ).  Now, the free ride looks about over.
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So, we are going more and more towards fake oil to run our running down economy.  The leadership doesn’t care that using the corn we once gave to the globe for ethanol intensifies conflict.  It was going to happen sooner or later, so they got a head start on survival.  President Cheney knew a thing or two about global dominance.  Anyway, we kept our corn crop at home for fuel more and more, and Canada and others have tar sands for us, and frac oil is coming from North Dakota.  Very low energy producers, but when you are on the wrong side of the global empire business, you survive off the scraps.  I contend that it isn’t a question of when our dominance peaks, but when we will realize it already has.  The global leader doesn’t need to use the dregs of the energy barrel to survive and thrive.  Okay, let’s assume I’m correct and our primary source ( or at least the source that keeps us level at the plateau rather than declining in volume ) of energy is crap fuels ( very low to negative energy return on energy invested ).  What better way to ensure they get produced than to jack up the price of conventional oil?  Crap fuels need a minimum price to be economically viable.  If oil is below, say, $70 a barrel, you might not make any profit, actually be at a loss, trying to extract fuel from tar sands.  Right now, our energy extraction is pure private sector, and it is funded by a for profit bank ( whereas, say, China uses their bank strategically, we prostitute ourselves to our bank ) and neither one of these sectors is going to lose or even risk money.  We must have conventional oil stay above a minimum price to be able to use our crap fuels ( even using the Gulf oil and the lower 48 oil needs higher prices as our costs are high for both the crap fuel and the domestic conventional fuels ). 
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So what do we do?  We use the intelligence services and the military and other taxpayer funded government agencies to stir up that big bubbling pot of crap called the middle east.  Conflict keeps the cost of conventional crude higher than it would normally be ( if this theory is correct, it might explain the effort four years ago  to jack up the crude cost to $140+ using the financial markets.  When that failed, we went to Plan B ) and hence it becomes profitable to “harvest” ethanol, tar sands, etc.  Long term this is of course not viable, but then, long term contraction is always about picking the current least worst choice.
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